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Original article URL: http://bridgemi.com/2014/02/truth-squad-calls-technical-foul-on-snyder-ad-for-touting-numbers-not-earned/
3 February 2014
|Who||Rick Snyder for Michigan|
|What||“Michigan’s Comeback Kid,” a television ad first aired during the Super Bowl promoting Rick Snyder for governor.|
|The call||Technical Foul|
The 60-second ad kicks off Gov. Rick Snyder’s reelection campaign during the Super Bowl, the same venue in which Snyder first made a splash four years ago when he ran an ad in which he called himself “one tough nerd.” Four years later, Snyder calls himself the “Comeback Kid.”
The ad is taken in large part from a five-minute web ad introduced in September.
It begins with Snyder underwater in snorkeling gear, and proceeds through various images of Michigan, pushing a theme that the state is in better shape now than before Snyder took office.
“Gov. Rick Snyder killed job-killing taxes”
Though the ad doesn’t specify the tax, Snyder has in the past referred to the Michigan Business Tax as “job killing.” Snyder and the legislature repealed the MBT in May 2011, replacing it with a 6 percent corporate income tax that cut taxes by $1.7 billion. Michigan’s unemployment rate has dropped 2.2 percentage points since May 2011, but had also been dropping before the MBT repeal. More than 2 ½ years after the MBT repeal, Michigan is ranked 47th among the 50 states in unemployment rate.
“Michigan gained 220,000 private sector jobs”
The statement is based on a University of Michigan economic forecast that is not available to the public. Depending on how it is sliced, Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate job growth since Snyder took office ranging from 182,000 to 291,000. The ad does not offer viewers a full perspective on the jobs figure. While jobs are increasing, there are still about a half million fewer jobs in Michigan today than in 2003.
Since Snyder took office in January 2011, the unemployment rate has dropped from 11.3 percent to 8.4 percent; but the state has also fallen even further nationally in unemployment rankings. Michigan ranked 46th in unemployment rate in January 2011, and ranked 47th in December 2013.
“We’re number one in states that have recovered the most from the great recession”
The ad cites a 24/7 Wall St. article from Jan. 3, 2013 that ranks states by how much their unemployment rate has dropped from its peak in the recession. Michigan’s unemployment rate peaked at 14.2 percent in August 2009, 17 months before Snyder took office. In those same months before Snyder actually became governor, the state’s unemployment rate dropped 2.9 percentage points from its peak. Since Snyder took office, the unemployment rate has dropped another 2.9 percentage points. So half of the percentage point drop in unemployment took place before Snyder became governor.
“Education funding is up”
There is enough gray area on this subject that Snyder can accurately claim education funding is up, while Democrat gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer can just as accurately claim school funding is down.
Snyder claimed in his State of the State address, though not in the Super Bowl ad, that K-12 spending had increased by $660 per student since he took office. That number reflects total appropriations, which have indeed risen from $12.98 billion in fiscal year 2011 to $13.36 billion appropriated for the current fiscal year, while the number of students has declined.
A lot of that increase has gone toward teacher pension liabilities, which is funding that may or may not be prudent but is not money that is flowing into classrooms. The state’s basic per pupil foundation allowance is down since Snyder took office, from $7,316 in 2010-11 to $7,076 in 2013-14.
(For a detailed breakdown on the school funding debate, see former director of the Michigan House Fiscal Agency Mitch Bean’s analysis)
|The call||Technical Foul|
This spot rates a technical foul for touting job numbers that weren’t entirely earned on Snyder’s watch. The ad takes credit for Michigan being No. 1 in recovery from the recession based partly on a recovery that had begun before he took office, and cites jobs growth while Michigan continues to trail the pack in unemployment rankings among states.
Correction: An earlier version of Bridge’s Truth Squad report on Gov. Rick Snyder’s Super Bowl ad, published Monday, inaccurately cited statistics on the drop in the state unemployment rate by referring to them as “percent” drops. We should have labeled them “percentage point” drops.
Also, in analyzing whether Snyder was taking credit for a jobs recovery that began during Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration, Bridge mistakenly failed to credit Snyder for job numbers in January 2011, his first month in office. As a result, the report indicated that most of the jobs recovery (in percentage points) took place on Granholm’s watch. In fact, the drop in the unemployment rate was 2.9 percentage points under Granholm, and 2.9 percentage points under Snyder since the height of the recession.
These corrections do not change Bridge’s call of a technical foul on Snyder’s campaign for touting job numbers that weren’t entirely earned on his watch. That said, Bridge regrets the errors and corrects them in the report today.