The disappearing cashier. And why Michigan should worry.

Is your job ripe for a robot?

Check out these occupations to see how susceptible they may be to automation. Type any portion of the job in the 'search' box. The automation probability is based on research by two United Kingdom researchers; Michigan median wage and job count numbers are from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most of the highest paying jobs are unlikely to be automated but require a high degree of education. Many of those most likely to be automated require far less education and pay far less as well.

“No lines, no checkouts, no registers.”

That may sound like shopping heaven for busy consumers. But no registers also means no cashiers. No cashiers, and 92,860 people in Michigan lose their jobs

Last December, Amazon unveiled “Amazon Go,” a convenience store that uses new technology to track what shoppers take off the shelves, so they can leave the store without using a cashier. Cameras and deep learning algorithms allow the store to automatically charge shoppers’ online accounts for what they put in their bag.  

While store cashiers are nowhere near extinct, the automation of labor is silently wiping out thousands of existing jobs across Michigan ‒ and it’s poised to grow.

MORE COVERAGE: If you don’t want to lose your job to a robot, don’t think like one 

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Analysis by Bloomberg Magazine of data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics suggests that jobs with the highest risk of automation are lower-paying service jobs. Some restaurants, for instance, have begun to phase out wait staff and cooks in favor of iPads and kiosks. A total (if unlikely) shift in the industry would take 379,500 jobs in the state. Receptionists, also on the decline, account for 31,230 Michigan workers. And one day, self-driving cars could eliminate the need for truckers, taking the jobs of 53,040 Michiganians.

“I don’t think people have...given enough thought to the very drastic changes that are coming in the American economy as well as the Michigan economy,” said Donald Grimes, a senior research specialist and economic forecaster at the University of Michigan’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy.

For all the talk about how automation has changed the face of manufacturing, “in many ways, the effect of automation has been bigger outside of manufacturing…it’s much more widespread than people realize.”

Most low-paying Michigan jobs destined for automation

Hundreds of thousands of jobs in Michigan are in the crosshairs of robots, algorithms and smart-phone apps, likely to go the way of telephone operators, travel agents ‒ and factory workers. Below shows that some of the highest-paying jobs ‒ requiring lots of education ‒ are currently immune. But thousands of others, many with low wages, are more likely to get booted by technology. Note: The bigger the circle, the more jobs are in that occupation. The chance of a job becoming automated is greater going to the right, and pays better toward the top of the chart.

Note: This analysis covers over 93 percent of Michigan jobs and utilizes the research of Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, professors at the University of Oxford, England. Based on descriptions of the skills needed for more than 700 occupations, Frey and Osborne calculated the likelihood that those jobs would be "computerized" or automated in the future. Bridge then combined that analysis with a job-by-job breakdown of employment in Michigan.

Consider the secretary. In 2006, 37,500 Michiganders worked as executive secretaries or administrative assistants. According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, that number had shrunk to 11,070 people by 2016.

“It wasn’t so many years ago that large numbers of secretaries were employed to type things...and to do dictation and all of that,” says Susan Houseman, a Senior Economist at the Kalamazoo-based W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. “The personal computer means that everybody...can act as their own administrative assistant and secretary.”

Secretary is not the only office job getting pink-slipped. Office administrator positions in Michigan shrank by 84 percent. Business operations specialists are down 44 percent. Roughly two-thirds of the jobs taking the biggest hit in Michigan are outside of manufacturing.

It’s important to know, of course, that technological innovation has historically created more jobs than it destroys in the overall economy. But overall trends do little to comfort those who lose their paycheck to automation and,  for reasons of geography or job skills, can’t latch onto new work. Such problems are poised to become increasingly common ‒ researchers at Oxford University estimate that 47 percent of all U.S. jobs have the potential to be computerized in the coming decades. Automation of jobs has arrived.

Is Michigan ready for the skills required of current and future jobs?

A national struggle

This technological revolution comes amid two related countrywide debates: How to stem job loss? And what to do about stagnated wages?

Jobs lost to technological advances cannot be solved by immigration restrictions or retooling international trade deals. These jobs are not being taken by any person or nation. They are simply disappearing.

Indeed, “the retail industry alone accounted for four of the ten subsectors with the biggest losses in the first four months of 2017,” Bloomberg reported in June, with 85,700 U.S. jobs lost. By comparison, 2,800 jobs were lost in the coal industry over that same period.

Meanwhile, the buying power of workers has also stalled. The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan research think tank, found that the federal minimum wage was higher in 1968, when adjusted for inflation. A frozen minimum wage does not affect just teenagers scooping ice cream over the summer ‒ about half of minimum-wage workers in the country are older than 24.

While a smaller slice of U.S. workers now earn minimum wage, the two largest industries for minimum wage work are in restaurant and sales jobs. This means the automation of service jobs like cashiers will affect a large portion of those already working for low wages.

As automation becomes a more efficient option, some economists predict that the fight for higher minimum-wage laws may encourage more companies to invest in automation, especially in the food service and sales. The push to increase minimum wage to $15 is what reportedly pushed McDonald’s to replace some cashiers with kiosks. Wendy’s has announced its decision to pursue the same tactic this year following a 5 percent increase in labor costs after a number of states raised their minimum wage.

With office jobs, food preparation, and retail facing a high likelihood of automation amid this national tide, Michigan stands to lose many existing jobs. According to data from to the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics, “office and administrative support” is the most common occupation in the state, with 624,190 workers. “Sales and related occupations” and “food preparation and serving-related occupations” also rank in the top five most common occupations in the state, accounting for 425,860 and 379,500 workers respectively.

How does Michigan prepare?

“I don’t think that there’s any precedent” for how the state can prepare for the dislocation of automation, said Houseman, the Upjohn economist. “[T]here's precedent for controlling trade. Or slowing down the pace for opening up markets to mitigate, a bit, the dislocation from trade. I don’t know of any policies historically that has tried to do that to sort of mitigate the pace of technological change.”

Houseman, Grimes, and other labor economists note that the use of automation to save on labor costs is not new. The “shift from farm life into the cities was a major upheaval in terms of the types of labor that were provided” said Houseman, and “people adjusted, ultimately. New jobs were created.”

Indeed, technology does generally create more jobs than it destroys. According to U.S. Census data, only one job has been completely eliminated due to automation ‒ elevator operator. Conventional economic theory says technological advances are ultimately good for the economy, as automation improves productivity, which fosters economic growth and wage increases.

“The big question,” Houseman cautions, “is whether what we are seeing now is fundamentally different from the sorts of waves of industrialization that we’ve experienced in the past.”

As Grimes notes, the most recent wave of automation is difficult because it is happening so quickly, which means “a bigger number of people you have to get retrained.”

Thinkers around the world are pondering how to best smooth the transition. Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates has suggested an extra tax on companies that utilize robotic labor. The idea was considered (and ultimately rejected) by lawmakers in the European Union.

The most traditional response to labor restructuring “is to beef up job search assistance and retraining provided by the state,” Houseman said, usually with help from the federal government.

Gov. Rick Snyder’s administration has emphasized reinvestment in training programs for professional trades. In April, the second phase of the governor’s “Going PRO” campaign launched, which aims to “change the discussion about the professional trades, enhance career tech programs and better connect the business and education communities so Michigan students can embrace opportunities for rewarding careers.”

The state, through the Michigan Workplace Development Force, has also invested in the Skilled Trades Training Fund, which provides economic incentives to employers that help workers enhance their job skills. Dave Murray, spokesperson at the Michigan Department of Talent and Economic Development, told MLive in April that 26,000 employees have received training through the fund.

Stephanie Beckhorn, senior deputy director for workforce programs at Michigan’s Talent Investment Agency, told Bridge the state also has a program for workers who lose their job to foreign trade, but none specifically for automation dislocation. No matter the cause, she said, the agency is “certainly available to help any individual that needs it.”

Threats to state’s robust job retraining  

Many worker training programs are run by a combination of state and federal funding and Houseman noted the Trump administration has proposed a 21 percent cut to the U.S. Labor Department, which she predicted would would have an impact on the state’s job-training efforts.

Even if properly funded, Grimes, the U-M economist, said he is concerned that traditional approaches may no longer be enough.

He said that while technical training at community colleges and apprenticeship programs in Michigan is usually very good, many workers also need to sharpen their soft skills, which can mean getting workers “to understand that means a major change in terms of how they interact with their customers or their clients.

“It’s one thing to be working on a construction project, and then that same person goes to become a nursing aide. They’re going to have to have much better interpersonal skills to deal with that client. ...That’s not going to be an easy transition for those people or for society to make that change.”  

“I don’t have any good answers,” Grimes, said, “but I do know it’s coming.”