- A new survey shows Michigan residents have mixed views on the economy
- Michigan is still falling in national wage rankings and there is no consensus on how to fix it
- Some business leaders say the economy remains unpredictable and tariff flip-flops don’t help
DETROIT — Michigan’s economy is in for a so-so rollercoaster ride over the next few years, with enough moderate losses and mild gains to prompt modest optimism, according to new Ann Arbor research.
The “meh” glimpse into the economy was unveiled Tuesday at the Detroit Economic Club, minutes before President Donald Trump offered a far more boosterish vision, telling business leaders that “inflation is defeated” and a “Trump economic boom” is underway.
“Right now, there’s so much uncertainty,” said Mary Buchzeiger, CEO of Auburn Hills-based auto supplier Lucerne International, who participated in a panel discussion at MotorCity Casino that preceded Trump’s address.
She added that she was a “little surprised” by optimism expressed by residents in an annual poll by Baker Consulting Group of Ann Arbor. The survey found that a plurality of residents lean positively about their immediate future and the state’s economy.
But neither optimism nor pessimism topped 50% in the survey; a full quarter of the respondents were simply neutral.
The result is a “modest” increase in optimism, researcher David Baker said.
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Looking at Trump’s policies, 55% of respondents said they are negative about what the federal moves mean for Michigan, despite Trump’s bullishness that tariffs have helped the state and its auto makers.
The polling reflects many of the comments by the presenters, who noted Michigan’s strengths while still calling out significant weaknesses.
Buchzeiger said many businesses are “scared to act” because they don’t know if Trump is going to “flip-flop” on policies, such as frequent threats and modifications last year to his tariffs.
Yet research from panelist Gabriel Ehrlich, an economist at the University of Michigan, indicated in November that Trump’s tariffs will have a “strong protective” effect on the US auto industry.
Still, Ehrlich said Michigan can expect a “soft patch” of employment this year that should recover in 2027.
A longer term concern — one mentioned over years by think tanks like Business Leaders for Michigan and Michigan Future Inc. —remains Michigan’s eroding wages.
“Michigan has fallen behind the rest of the states in wages,” Ehrlich said, noting that in 35 years, the state has gone from wages that were 10% above the national average to 4% below it.
Panelist Quentin Messer Jr., CEO of the Michigan Economic Development Corporation, said Michigan is determining how it wants to grow economically.
Lawmakers no longer have consensus cash-for-jobs incentives, with the Legislature recently defunding the large-scale spending allowed by the Strategic Outreach and Attraction Reserve (SOAR) fund.
Investigations by Bridge Michigan on the state’s incentive investments found they have produced only one-quarter of promised jobs and half of those pay less than the state’s median wage.
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