The Michigan economy is recovering.
For those of you with weak hearts, let’s leave it at that. Spend a few minutes watching a kitten stuck in a hamster ball.
For those of you still here: the economy is recovering slowly.
Just how slowly? I could show you a chart, but this will give you a good idea.
George Fulton, research professor at the Institute for Research on Labor, Employment and the Economy at the University of Michigan, gave his economic forecast to the state’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference last week; Wednesday, he gave a repeat performance for a group hosted by the Lansing-area University of Michigan Alumni Association.
According to Fulton, the Michigan economy bottomed out in the third quarter of 2009, and has been inching upward for two years. In fact, over the past two years, employment growth in Michigan has outpaced that of the U.S. as a whole.
But employment has a long way to go. According to Fulton, Michigan’s non-farm employment reached its peak in the second quarter of 2000, at about 4.7 million jobs. Fulton projects Michigan won’t return to that level of employment until sometime after 2030.
Other highlights and lowlights of the economic forecast:
– General fund revenue will increase 1.7 percent this year, but school aid fund revenue will decrease 4.5 percent.
– The state unemployment rate will drop slowly, but remain well above historic norms. Fulton projects 9.4 percent unemployment in 2012; 9.2 percent in 2013 and 8.7 percent in 2014.
– Most of the decrease in unemployment rate will be the result of a decreased number of people looking for work, rather than actual job growth.
– Private-sector jobs will increase through 2014, while public-sector jobs will continue to decline.
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under our Republication Guidelines. Questions? Email republishing@bridgemi.com
