Opinion | Michigan would pay dearly for Trump pause on refugee resettlement

Editor’s note: Rob Fowler is a member of the Board of Directors of The Center for Michigan. His views in this commentary are his own. The Center for Michigan is a nonpartisan nonprofit that does not lobby on political issues. Its board does not influence editorial policy of Bridge Michigan or BridgeDetroit.

Despite our nation’s divisions, most people can agree that $72 million is a lot of money.

Yet, Michigan stands to potentially lose $72 million in state and local tax revenue over the next 10 years due to President Trump’s decree pausing all refugee resettlement in the United States. 

While an initial ruling in a lawsuit filed by refugee resettlement agencies temporarily lifted the pause, the Trump administration responded by canceling all of the refugee resettlement contracts in the days following the ruling.

For context, the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC) will grant small businesses roughly $72 million this year through the State Small Business Credit Initiative. The state will also spend approximately $72 million on much-needed fixes to major roadways like US 131 in Kent County, US 24 in Wayne County, and US 131 in Kalamazoo County.

For state and local governments, each dollar of $72 million is critical to funding a variety of services our communities expect and depend on. The prospective loss of this funding should be cause for alarm for all Michiganders.

The Trump administration’s policies toward refugees and desire to severely limit our federal refugee resettlement are well established. Trump initiated a similar pause on his first day in office in 2017, and throughout his first term, refugee resettlements were at historic lows. 

Yet, as Michigan strives to meet its ambitious talent and population growth goals, eliminating a highly vetted humanitarian resettlement program could irrevocably damage our long-term population and economic trajectories.

Over the past 10 years, more than 72,700 refugees have settled in Michigan. In 2022 alone, these 72,700 Michiganders have earned over $2.5 billion, paying a combined $374.2 million in federal taxes and $214.3 million in state and local taxes.

But the collective impact of these new residents goes way beyond the financial: They also establish innovative and critical businesses, aid in engineering and manufacturing the cars of the future, care for sick loved ones, and, above all, become vital members of Michigan’s local communities.

To enter the United States as a refugee, a person must undergo a rigorous vetting process that includes at least eight federal agency screenings, six database and security checks and three in-person interviews with the Department of Homeland Security. 

When Trump paused refugee resettlement in January, Michigan was expected to receive 2,265 additional refugees before the end of the federal fiscal year on Sept. 30.

Global Detroit and Public Policy Associates have worked to quantify the lost economic opportunity from an extended pause. These 2,265 new refugees are estimated to contribute over $84.1 million in annual earnings, $12.6 million in federal taxes, and $7.2 million in state and local taxes. Over the next decade, this would amount to $72 million in lost state and local taxes.

The economic case for reinstating the refugee program is simple. It would bring more workers and money into our state, growing our population and economy. 

Yes, $72 million is a lot of money. As a loss, it will be a crushing blow. 

However, strong leaders calling for reinstating the refugee resettlement program can help us retain this money and much more. Immigration policy—and its affiliated refugee resettlement policy—is economic policy.

A new research brief from Global Detroit and Public Policy Associates discusses the economic loss in more detail.

Global Detroit and Public Policy Associates are both signatories to the Businesses and People for Immigration campaign, which calls for smart immigration policy that will create a strong, effective, and welcoming federal and state immigration system that offers freedom, opportunity, and security to immigrants whose talent, hard work, and entrepreneurship help us build a more prosperous America and stronger Michigan. For those wishing to join the campaign or learn more, please visit www.forimmigration.biz.

We need Michigan leaders to tell Congress and the president that the pause on refugee resettlement will hurt our state’s economy and our local communities.