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Great Lakes continuing to lose ice coverage, experts warn

A little bit of in Lake Michigan near Holland, Michigan.
As ice coverage continues to shrink, experts warn that these changes could become the new normal, with climate change contributing to the shift in weather patterns. In this photo, a few small chunks of ice float in Lake Michigan near Ottawa Beach in Holland. (Kristen Normal for Bridge Michigan)
  • Warmer temperatures have reduced ice coverage on the Great Lakes significantly over the past decade
  • Reduced ice cover on the Great Lakes could lead to more intense lake-effect snow
  • Experts say the lack of ice also affects local economies

The Great Lakes aren’t freezing like they used to — and experts say this could be the new normal for winter in Michigan.

As of Wednesday, the Great Lakes were about 20% ice-covered. Compare that to a decade ago, when ice coverage on the lakes hovered around 60% at this time of year, according to the Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis, a digital map of the lakes’ water temperature and ice coverage from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

Just five years later, in 2020, ice coverage on the Great Lakes was about 6% during this time of year. And it hit a historic low in early February of last year, dipping to just 2.7%

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“(The) Great Lakes is losing ice over the long term,” said Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, associate research scientist for the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research at the University of Michigan. “We still get high ice in some years, even recently, but if we draw a trend line over the long-term, we do see a decreasing trend.” 

One of the factors that contributes to this is global warming which can be mitigated by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, Fujisaki-Manome added. 

The amount of ice coverage varies widely from lake to lake. As of Wednesday about 10% of Lake Superior was covered in ice, which is below its average of about 32% for this time of year, according to data from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The average is for 1973 through 2024.

Less than 30% of Lake Huron is covered in ice which is below its average of about 44% for this time of year. 

Ice coverage on Lake Michigan is about 17%  which is also below average of 25% ice coverage, while Lake Erie has nearly 80% ice coverage, significantly above average. Lake Ontario has about 17% ice coverage, slightly below its typical levels.

Snow impact

Less ice coverage on the Great Lakes can mean more intense lake effect snow. 

Lake effect snow occurs when cool moisture in the atmosphere mixes with warm water above lakes.

Water changes temperatures at a slower rate than air or land, which is why swimming in the Great Lakes can feel “cool and refreshing” on a hot summer day, despite the air temperature, said Sarah Hutchinson, climate data science officer at the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability.

An ice shelf near the shores of Grand Traverse Bay in Michigan.
Ducks take flight over an ice shelf near the shores of Grand Traverse Bay not far from downtown Traverse City. (Kathy Kieliszewski/Bridge Michigan)

“Lake effect tends to be more intense during winters with low ice coverage because the lakes are warmer and the water surface is more exposed to the air,” she said. “And on the other hand, winters with high ice coverage tend to see less lake effect snow, because the ice over top of the lake serves as … a cap which prevents water from evaporating.” 

Ice cover has additional benefits, according to Hutchinson. 

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“Slick ice serves to protect shorelines from erosion and flood, from severe storms. And industries such as tourism and outdoor sports tend to suffer when lake ice is too thin to safely support the weight of people and any corresponding equipment,” she said. 

“Declining ice cover could also place undue stress on fish populations, which can have direct impacts on things like recreational hunting and fishing as well as regional and local food supplies.”

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Winter activities

Low ice coverage on the Great Lakes as well as on inland lakes could also put a damper on beloved Michigan winter activities like ice fishing. 

A lot of ice covering Lake St. Clair in Michigan.
Lake St. Clair is mostly covered with ice near the shore with open water noticeable farther out. (Kathy Kieliszewski/Bridge Michigan)

“Last year, when the ice levels were low, I got more calls than any other year and it was all because people were noticing they could not go ice fishing anymore,” said Richard Rood, co-principal investigator for the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments, a collaboration between the University of Michigan, Michigan state and the NOAA. 

Last year, Black Lake sturgeon fishing season was canceled for the first time since 1947 due to the lack of ice coverage on the lake. The UP200 sled dog race in Marquette was nixed in 2023 because of heavy rains. Last year, weather forced organizers to scrap the race and host a downtown festival instead.

“So the cultural aspects of it are also very important. There's a lot of economy associated with our winter time economy and so those businesses are finding it difficult to adapt,” he said.  

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