Study: Climate change means fewer freezing winter days in Michigan

A new study finds Michigan has lost 9 days annually of freezing weather as a result of human-caused climate change
The state’s Lower Peninsula coastline has seen the greatest thaw, while UP and inland LP snowbelts have seen the least
The winter of 2025 has so far been relatively mild, but an ongoing cold snap could change that

Tough as it may be to believe as a January chill grips the state, Michigan has lost more than a week annually of freezing weather to climate change.

That’s the conclusion of a new report from the climate communication nonprofit Climate Central, which found that Michigan is getting nine fewer days annually of sub-32-degree temperatures today than it would if humans had not altered the earth’s climate by burning fossil fuels.

“That’s about 10% of the winter season already,” said Kristina Dahl, the group’s vice president for science. “And we’ve only warmed the planet by roughly 1.3 degrees (Celsius).”

With humanity on track to add another 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century, Dahl said, the loss is certain to grow more pronounced.

Researchers used computer models to investigate how warming has changed winter across the northern hemisphere, as measured by the number of December, January and February days in which temperatures fail to dip below freezing.

What they found

The biggest changes are in Europe, where some countries have lost several weeks worth of sub-freezing winter days.

The US average is six fewer sub-freezing days annually — putting Michigan’s nine-day loss on the higher side.

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The severity of human-caused thaw varies across the state, with Leelanau County experiencing the biggest impact. In the shoreline county north of Traverse City, winter now includes two full weeks of days in which temperatures fail to dip below freezing. Iron County has seen the slightest loss, with just two fewer freezing days.

Those numbers reflect a statewide pattern: In general, the study found that the UP and inland northern Michigan have seen the smallest loss of wintry days due to climate change, while the Lower Peninsula shorelines have seen the biggest.

Dahl warned not to misconstrue the UP’s enduring chill as a sign that it is warming slower than the rest of Michigan.

“It’s just a colder part of the state to begin with,” she said, so the warming isn’t regularly crossing the freeze-thaw line.

As for the more pronounced thaw along the coasts?

“Blame the moderating influence of water,” Dahl said.

The Great Lakes are slow to cool down after summer ends. That’s why Lake Michigan’s surface water temperature is 40 degrees today, even while daytime highs across the state hover in the 20s.

That heat emanates off the water, making coastal winters milder than inland winters. Now climate change is not only warming the air, but also superheating the water to exacerbate the effect.

Nationally, Washington, DC had the biggest loss of freezing days, at 12 annually. Areas with the smallest loss were Hawaii, at zero days, and Florida and North Dakota, at one day apiece.

“Those are places that are naturally either very cold, or very warm,” Dahl said.

But if climate change continues unabated, even the frigid North Dakota winters will thaw out more often.

Simply put, Dahl said, “the longer we continue to burn coal, oil and gas, the more we will continue to warm the planet.”

Consequences for people, crops, animals

Michigan’s warming winters have implications for everything from outdoor recreation to agriculture and mental health.

To name just a few of the consequences:

Fewer freezing days means thinner snow and ice, a disappointment for winter sports enthusiasts and the businesses built around Michiganders’ penchant for skiing, snowmobiling and ice fishing.
When the Great Lakes fail to freeze over, Michigan gets more lake-effect cloud cover caused by icy wind sweeping over the water and picking up moisture. It’s a real mood-killer.
A lack of snow can be life-threatening for animals that evolved to thrive in harsh winters. That includes the snowshoe hare, whose white winter coat turns from an effective camouflage to a liability when snow melts prematurely.
And a lack of so-called “chilling hours” poses challenges for Michigan’s cherry, apple and peach farmers.

“You often hear people say things like, “when I was a kid, the pond in my backyard would freeze and I could skate all winter long,’” Dahl said. “The observations that people are making, just anecdotally in their lives, are really backed up by this data set.”

This winter is warmer than normal … for now

So far, the winter of 2025 has been relatively mild in Michigan. Surface water temperatures in all five Great Lakes are well above average, and ice cover is below average. And while parts of the state have received large quantities of lake-effect snow, much of it has melted, leaving remaining snow cover below historical averages.

A day can make a lot of difference, though. With temperatures expected to remain below freezing in the coming days, Michigan’s ice and snow cover could both rebound.