Michigan House battle spurs big spending as Democrats defend slim majority

• Democratic candidates outraising Republicans in key races, many of which nonetheless remain tight
• Major party state House candidates are on pace to raise record sums for their races as Democrats defend a two-seat majority
• Democrat Elissa Slotkin continues to raise large sums in bid to succeed retiring US Sen. Debbie Stabenow

LANSING — With control of the Michigan House and Congress hanging in the balance, Democrats are far outraising Republican counterparts in some of the state’s most competitive races ahead of the Nov. 5 election. 

Many of those races remain toss-ups, however, mirroring the top of the ticket, where Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are locked in a tight battle for Michigan’s 15 electoral votes. 

Candidates were required to file fundraising disclosure reports by the end of last week. Here’s what we learned:

Big bucks for state House candidates

As Democrats defend a two-seat majority in the state House, new fundraising totals suggest candidates are poised to raise and spend more money than any previous cycle. That would make this the most expensive state House battle in Michigan history. 

Excluding outside spending, candidates alone have taken in more than $32 million when including assistance from PACs representing each of the major party caucuses in the Michigan House. 

In the period from mid-July through mid-October, Democratic state House candidates took in $10 million compared to about $6 million for Republican candidates, according to new state disclosure reports filed Friday. 

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Democrats outspent their rivals at a near four-to-one ratio, pumping $5.9 million into advertising and other expenses, compared to less than $1.6 million for Republicans.

The House is split 56 to 54 with Democrats in the majority after a historic 2022 election that swayed the Legislature’s balance of power. Republicans only need to flip one seat to split the chamber, and two would win them control for the final two years of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s second term.

Races in at least 13 House districts have cost more than $1 million between candidate fundraising and spending from their caucus PACs and outside groups. Eight have seen more than $2 million thus far, though the true costs is likely substantially higher.

Major party funds

Since July, major party caucus PACs raised about $6.1 million and spent over $14 million, with Democrats slightly outraising their Republican counterparts. 

Democrats’ numbers were artificially inflated, however, as they had given the Michigan Democratic Party money throughout the year, only to have the $650,000 they’d transferred refunded in a lump sum in October.

Donors can give those PACs more money than individual candidates – up to $48,875 a year — which can be spent without limit on their party’s general election candidates.

It means the millions funneled into the caucus PACs is then poured into the most competitive districts.

The most expensive race is in the downriver area of Wayne County, where Democratic state Rep. Jaime Churches of Wyandotte has raised almost $1.7 million this election cycle as she faces a challenge from Rylee Linting, the youth vice chair of the Michigan Republican Party. 

Churches won the Republican-leaning district by just 660 votes in 2022 and is facing a tough reelection fight. Combined, more than $3.8 million has flowed into the district from disclosed sources alone. 

The candidates and caucus PACs have garnered nearly $2.1 million but the rest is from outside spending groups.

In the 103rd District surrounding Traverse City, incumbent Democratic Rep. Betsy Coffia had outraised Republican challenger Lisa Trombley by more than $250,000, but when caucus PAC spending is included, the two are neck-and-neck. There’s been about $1.4 million in disclosed outside spending from groups like the Michigan Freedom Network and League of Conservation Voters, pushing the race’s cost to more than $3 million.

Donors who gave the maximum amount to House Democrats’ caucus PAC included the New York-based Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund and James Jacob, CEO of Ajax Paving Industries in Troy. 

For Republicans, max donors included Nan Van Andel, of the powerful west Michigan family, Farmington Hills real estate developer Mickey Shapiro and former US Ambassador to Morocco David T. Fischer.

The true amount being spent in the contest for the state House is difficult to determine, however, as historically the largest source of undisclosed money in state legislative elections has come from Michigan’s state parties themselves, who operate separate “administrative” accounts that don’t have disclosure requirements. 

Gongwer News Service reported last week that Democrats have spent or reserved $25.1 million in broadcast ads across 14 races, and nearly half the spending is from the Michigan Democratic Party, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Slotkin maintains fundraising advantage

Federal candidates on Thursday were required to file a pre-election report disclosing their finances for the first half of October.

In the race to replace retiring US Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Democrat Elissa Slotkin reported raising another $5 million, bringing her total from the election cycle to $45.8 million, while Republican Mike Rogers raised $985,000 for an election total of $10.4 million.

The Senate race remains tight, with Slotkin no more than a few percentage points ahead in most polls. Rogers has also had the aid of the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super Political Action Committee that has spent more than $20 million supporting him to date.

In Michigan’s highly competitive 7th Congressional District race, Democrat Curtis Hertel of East Lansing raised about $515,000 in the latest period, compared to $392,000 for Republican Tom Barrett of Charlotte. Hertel is far ahead of Barrett for the election cycle, having raised a little over $7 million to Barrett’s $4.6 million.

Outside spending has also poured into that mid-Michigan race, making it one of the most expensive congressional contests in the country. 

In Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, home to another of the state’s most competitive races, Republican Paul Junge of Grand Blanc reported raising $706,000 while lending his campaign $550,000 of that total, bringing his total self-financing for this election $4.4 million. 

His opponent, Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet of Bay City, has raised $594,000 and has outraised Junge even when including his loaned funds. McDonald Rivet has raised about $5.3 million through mid-October, while Paul Junge has taken in $5.1 million, mostly from himself.

Republican US Rep. John James of Shelby Township has continued to substantially outperform Democrat Carl Marlinga of Sterling Heights in the money game for Macomb County’s 10th Congressional District, however. 

James raised $739,000 in the first half of October, compared to Marlinga’s $362,000. In total, Marlinga has raised and spent only a fraction of what James has, and he entered the final stretch of the election with less than $900,000 in the bank, compared to James’ more than $2.3 million.