Michigan primary results: Elissa Slotkin, Mike Rogers win U.S. Senate races

• Elissa Slotkin wins Michigan U.S. Senate Democratic primary
• Mike Rogers defeats Justin Amash in Republican primary
• Winners will compete to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow

Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers won Tuesday’s U.S. Senate primaries in Michigan, setting the stage for a high-stakes general election showdown between the current and former members of congress. 

With both candidates out to commanding leads in partial results, The Associated Press called the races at 9 p.m.

With an estimated 16% of statewide votes counted in the Democratic primary by 10 p.m., Slotkin led with 78% of the vote, compared to 22% for Hill Harper. 

Rogers was leading the Republican field with 66% of the vote, topping his closest competitor, former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, at 14%. See the latest statewide results here:

Slotkin and Rogers will now advance to the general election to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat and longtime fixture in Michigan politics who has held the seat since 2001. 

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The race is expected to be one of the most competitive U.S. Senate races in the country as Republicans seek to flip the seat and Democrats attempt to defend their narrow voting majority in the upper chamber. 

The Cook Political Report recently recategorized the Michigan seat from leaning Democratic to a true toss-up, a change analysts attributed to Democratic upheaval in the presidential election and Rogers’ performance in the GOP primary. 

Michigan has favored Democrats in recent statewide elections, but former President Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and only narrowly lost to President Joe Biden in 2020, leading Republicans to believe the Senate seat is in play.

Trump backing boosts Rogers

"I want to thank all of you for not giving up on politics," Rogers said in a Tuesday night victory speech in Lake Orion, criticizing Democrats’ immigration and economic policies under Biden.

"When we work hard, and I get to the United States Senate, we're going to put China on notice," he said. "There's going to be a price to pay."

Rogers, a former FBI agent, represented the Lansing area in Congress from 2001 through 2014 and chaired the U.S. House Intelligence Committee.

He had long been considered the frontrunner for the GOP nomination after securing the endorsement of Donald Trump and dominating the Republican field in both fundraising and name recognition. 

While Rogers had been critical of Trump in the past, the former president’s endorsement helped endear the Michigan Republican to many party faithful. 

He earned a speaking slot at last month’s Republican National Convention, where he railed against high costs of living and concerns over the prospect of electric vehicle mandates under President Joe Biden.

Rogers has said his other top policy goals include securing the U.S.-Mexico border, stopping the “economic threat” that China poses to the automotive industry, curbing violent crime and improving child literacy.

Rogers more recently won support from his one-time opponent Pensler, a southeast Michigan business executive who had run a spirited self-funded campaign against Rogers before ending his campaign and declaring Rogers the candidate “best positioned to win” in the fall. 

That left two other Republicans in the race: Amash, a west Michigan politician known for his libertarian views and willingness to buck the party line, and O’Donnell, a Berrien County physician, pastor and author who has never held elected office. 

Amash, who had campaigned on protecting individual rights and opposing “reckless spending and the weaponization of government,” had bashed Rogers as a “deep state … establishment stooge.” But many Republican voters were concerned about his previous break with the party and 2019 vote to impeach Trump.

O’Donnell gained some traction in grassroots conservative circles – and earned an endorsement from musician Ted Nugent — but made little splash beyond that.

Democrats’ Detroit focus

Slotkin, a Holly Democrat who has served in Congress since 2019, has developed a reputation as a formidable fundraiser who can win competitive seats.The former CIA analyst and Department of Defense official, had long been seen as the candidate to beat in the Democratic primary.

In a Tuesday night acceptance speech delivered in Detroit, Slotkin told supporters it was an “extremely proud moment” to be the Democratic nominee and asked voters to continue holding her accountable. 

She argued the crux of November’s Senate contest will be “choice of service to country and service to self.” 

“I understand what it’s like to be cynical about politics and not expect much from your elected officials,” Slotkin said. “My plan is to leap over that very, very low bar.” 

Stabenow, who had held off on an endorsement during the primary race, threw her support behind Slotkin Tuesday night, calling her a “workhorse” who can help Michigan Democrats win up and down the ticket. 

“There is no one more qualified, more talented, more hardworking who I could pass the torch to,” Stabenow said.

Slotkin has said one of her main priorities in the campaign is addressing the “over-the-top” costs of child care, education, housing, health care and prescription drugs, backing an “opportunity agenda” to address disparities in those arenas. 

She’s also concerned about ongoing access to reproductive rights at the federal level, arguing that Michigan’s 2022 passage of state-level abortion rights could be jeopardized by future federal restrictions. 

Both Slotkin and Harper paid considerable attention to Detroit, a heavily Democratic and majority Black region capable of making or breaking a Democrat’s chances at the polls.

Harper, who owns Detroit’s historic Charles T. Fisher Mansion and is known nationally for his roles on “The Good Doctor” and “CSI: New York,” made some inroads in the Democratic electorate during his campaign, particularly among prominent Black politicians and community leaders who saw Harper’s candidacy as a chance to stem the erosion of Black representation in Michigan politics.

But Harper hasn’t cornered the market on Detroit support: Slotkin held dozens of campaign events in the city and boasted endorsements from several current and former Detroit officials. 

Top-down tossup

Slotkin has maintained a narrow lead above Rogers in hypothetical general election polling, though several observers have told Bridge the winner of the U.S. Senate race could come down to which presidential candidate prevails in Michigan.

With current polls showing Trump and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in a statistical tie atop the Nov. 5 general election ballot, it could go either way in this key battleground state.

“Another way of thinking about it is, how many Slotkin-Trump voters can there be? It's not going to be that many,” Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University, recently told Bridge. 

Novi voter Bryan Hood, who voted for Slotkin in the Democratic primary Tuesday, said he appreciates that Harris has “risen to the occasion” and consolidated party support. He’s also a fan of Harris’ vice presidential pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

“I like that he's got a Midwestern, down to earth appeal,” Hood said. “He doesn't talk like a politician, he talks like a regular guy.”

Hood said he likes Slotkin because she’s “very down to earth, relatable and normal” and has focused on healthcare issues while in Congress. 

Mike Welch of Emmet County voted for Rogers in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, but offered a less-than-ringing endorsement as he left his polling place in Carp Lake. He’d planned to vote for Peter Meijer, the former congressman from Grand Rapids, but couldn’t find his name on the Republican primary ballot because Meijer dropped out of the race in April. 

As an alternative, Welch said he voted for Rogers, who he’d “read a little about recently.”

Welch told Bridge he’d support Trump over Harris in the presidential race in November. “I like Trump, but I’m not crazy about him,” said Welch, who is a sergeant in the Emmet County Sheriff’s office. “There are times when I thought, I sure wish the Republican party could have come up with someone else.”

Welch said he’s “leery” of Harris, the vice president and Democratic presidential candidate, saying he “never saw her for 3 ½ years,” and the one issue she was supposed to solve — the border crisis — was a failure.

Slotkin has long dominated the entire field of candidates in fundraising, banking millions of dollars in preparation for the general election cycle. 

Between April and June, she raised roughly $6.5 million over the last three months and reported $9.5 million in reserves at the end of the quarter, campaign finance filings show. 

Rogers pulled in a little over $2 million last quarter and entered the final weeks of the primary with $2.5 million in the bank. Support from the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC that has already spent millions supporting his campaign, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has further bolstered Rogers’ efforts. 

— Bridge reporter Ron French contributed