Michigan primary to shape ‘toss-up' race for U.S. Senate

• Three Republicans, two Democrats remain in the race for U.S. Senate 
• Aug. 6 primaries will determine Democratic and GOP nominees for general election
• Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race is expected to be competitive and potentially key to determining the chamber’s political majority

Michigan voters next week will narrow the field of contenders to replace outgoing U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, choosing their preferred candidates in both Democratic and Republican primaries. 

Three Republicans and two Democrats are competing in Aug. 6 primaries for the chance to replace Stabenow, a fixture in Michigan politics since the 1970s who has held the seat since 2001. 

U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is giving up her post in the House to run for Senate, has dominated the early fundraising battle and headlines the Democratic race against actor Hill Harper. Businessman Nasser Beydoun was disqualified from the ballot due to an error on his petition sheets.

Among Republicans, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers emerged as the frontrunner after earning an endorsement from former President Donald Trump and leading the GOP field in fundraising and name recognition. 

Business executive Sandy Pensler last month suspended his campaign to endorse Rogers, leaving a three-way race between Rogers, former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, and physician Sherry O’Donnell. 

Related:

• For TV star Hill Harper, Michigan’s U.S. Senate race may be toughest role
• Slotkin, Rogers raise millions in Michigan U.S. Senate race. See who’s donating
• With rival's backing, Mike Rogers in ‘driver’s seat’ for U.S. Senate primary

Michigan has favored Democrats in recent statewide elections, but Trump won the state in 2016 and only narrowly lost to President Joe Biden in 2020. With current polls showing Trump and new presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in a statistical tie atop the Nov. 5 general election ballot, Republicans believe the seat is in play. 

The general election race could be one of the most competitive in the country as Republicans seek to flip the seat and Democrats attempt to defend their narrow voting majority in the Senate.

The Cook Political Report recently recategorized the general election race from leaning Democratic to a true toss-up, a change analysts attributed to Democratic upheaval in the presidential election and Rogers’ dominance in the GOP primary. 

Slotkin vs. Harper 

Since her first run for Congress in 2018, Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and Department of Defense official, has developed a reputation as a formidable fundraiser who can win competitive seats and has long been seen as the one to beat in the Democratic primary.

Slotkin has said one of her main priorities is addressing the “over-the-top” costs of child care, education, housing, health care and prescription drugs, backing an “opportunity agenda” to address disparities in those arenas. 

She’s also concerned about ongoing access to reproductive rights at the federal level, arguing that Michigan’s 2022 passage of state-level abortion rights could be jeopardized by future federal restrictions. 

Both she and Harper have paid considerable attention to Detroit, a heavily Democratic and majority Black region capable of making or breaking a Democrat’s chances at the polls.

Harper, who owns Detroit’s historic Charles T. Fisher Mansion and is known nationally for his roles on “The Good Doctor” and “CSI: New York,” has made some inroads in the Democratic electorate, particularly among prominent Black politicians and community leaders who see Harper’s candidacy as a chance to stem the erosion of Black representation at the state and federal level. 

Harper’s endorsements include Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, former U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence, the Fannie Lou Hamer PAC, and the Black Mayors of Michigan. 

Harper has also gotten an onstage shoutout from Ludacris, shot a music video with Detroit rapper Gmac Cash (known in part for coining Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s “Big Gretch” moniker) and called in longtime friend and comedian Dave Chappelle to headline a fundraiser at St. Andrew’s Hall, where ticket costs ranged from $250 to $3,300. 

But he hasn’t cornered the market on Detroit support: Slotkin has held dozens of campaign events in the city and boasts endorsements from former Mayor Dave Bing, City Council member Fred Durhal III, Police Commissioner Ricardo Moore and former City Council President Saunteel Jenkins, among others. 

Three-way Republican race

On the Republican side, Rogers — a former FBI agent who chaired the U.S. House Intelligence Committee while in Congress — is the frontrunner in what’s now a three-way race for the GOP nomination. 

Rogers previously criticized Trump and his allies for attempting to overturn 2020 election results but reconciled with the former president this year and accepted his endorsement in March. 

That helped endear Rogers to many party faithful, and he earned a speaking slot at last month’s Republican National Convention, where he railed against high costs of living and concerns over the prospect of electric vehicle mandates under President Joe Biden.

Other top policy goals have included securing the U.S.-Mexico border, stopping the “economic threat” that China poses to the automotive industry, curbing violent crime and improving child literacy.

Rogers more recently won support from his one-time opponent Pensler, a Southeast Michigan business executive who had run a spirited self-funded campaign against Rogers before deciding Rogers was the candidate “best positioned to win.”

That left two other Republicans in the race: Amash, a West Michigan politician known for his libertarian views and willingness to buck the party line, and O’Donnell, a Berrien County physician, pastor and author who has never held elected office. 

Amash says his priorities include defending individual rights and opposing “reckless spending and the weaponization of government” regardless of which party holds the presidency. He’s repeatedly blasted Rogers for his record on government surveillance issues, at one point calling Rogers “the worst establishment candidate that you could ever imagine.” 

The son of Palestinian and Syrian immigrants, Amash has said he hopes to appeal to Michigan’s Arab American voters disillusioned by both parties amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and believes he has a chance to beat Rogers.

Amash recently earned an endorsement from U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. But some Michigan Republicans who say they otherwise appreciate Amash’s policy stances can’t get over his previous break with the party and 2019 vote to impeach Trump.

O’Donnell supports “medical freedom,” lowering taxes, instituting term limits for members of Congress. While she’s gained some traction in grassroots conservative circles – and earned an endorsement from musician Ted Nugent — O’Donnell faces long odds at winning over the statewide Republican electorate.

What polls, finances say

Slotkin has long dominated the entire field of candidates in fundraising, banking millions of dollars in preparation for the general election cycle. She raised roughly $6.5 million over the last three months and reported $9.5 million in reserves. 

Over the same time period, Harper raised just under $390,000 in contributions. Nearly $100,000 came from small, unitemized donations.

Rogers has similarly lapped the Republican field in fundraising, pulling in little over $2 million last quarter and entering the final weeks of the primary with $2.5 million in the bank. 

Support from the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC that has already spent millions supporting his campaign, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has further bolstered Rogers’ efforts.  

Both Slotkin and Rogers have polled well above their opponents, leading by double digits in their respective primaries.

Slotkin has maintained a narrow lead above Rogers in hypothetical general election polling, though several observers have told Bridge the final outcome could go either way depending on what happens at the top of the ticket.