With rival's backing, Mike Rogers in ‘driver’s seat’ for U.S. Senate primary

• Michigan Republican U.S. Senate primary narrowed to three after Sandy Pensler suspended his campaign, endorsed Mike Rogers
• Rogers, already considered the front-runner, has pulled ahead of competitors leading up to the Aug. 6 primary
• Former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and physician Sherry O’Donnell are also seeking the Republican nomination

With former President Donald Trump looking on, business executive Sandy Pensler last week ended his campaign for U.S. Senate and endorsed a rival Republican he had previously called “unprincipled” and accused of helping Hillary Clinton “cover up” the 2012 Benghazi attacks.

Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers had already refuted those Pensler attacks, but the handshake from his self-funded antagonist solidified his status as the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, according to experts. 

“I did not want to be in a position where the end result was I was hurting the chance for a Republican to win the seat,” Pensler told Bridge Michigan, explaining his decision to endorse Rogers and stop campaigning even though his name will still appear on the Aug. 6 primary ballot. 

For Pensler, who lost a 2018 U.S. Senate primary to Republican John James by nine points, it was time to bow out and support the Republican “best positioned to win,” he said. 

Pensler’s exit narrowed a four-way race to three: Rogers, a former FBI agent who chaired the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, still faces former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and physician Sherry O’Donnell in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate nomination.

Rogers had already led every poll of the Republican primary by double digits, and Pensler-funded primary ads attacking Rogers had done little to change the tide. He’s also lapped the Republican field in fundraising, pulling in little over $2 million last quarter and entering the final weeks of the primary with $2.5 million in the bank. 

General election polling shows Rogers neck-and-neck with U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, who is competing against actor Hill Harper in the primary.  

The U.S. Senate seat has long been in Democratic control, but the open seat quickly became one of the most competitive in the country after Stabenow announced she wouldn't seek reelection. 

Related:

• Michigan Aug. 6 primary: What to know about absentee ballots, early voting
• For TV star Hill Harper, Michigan’s U.S. Senate race may be toughest role
• Elissa Slotkin winning over Senate donors. Her challenge: Win over Black voters

Already, Democrats and Republicans are planning to spend a combined $48 million on television ads for the race.

An early endorsement from Trump has helped endear Rogers to party faithful, and he earned a speaking slot at last week's Republican National Convention, where he railed against high costs of living and concerns over the prospect of electric vehicle mandates under President Joe Biden.

With a little over a week to go before the primary, campaign spokesperson Chris Gustafson said Rogers isn't taking anything for granted.

“Mike Rogers hits the road every day meeting with voters all across Michigan,” he said. “Our historic and unprecedented data-driven ground game will ensure our voters turn out next month and lead Mike to victory not only in August, but to defeat Elissa Slotkin in November as well.” 

Democrats, however, are still using Pensler's words against Rogers, arguing that past claims from a fellow Republican are evidence that "Michiganders can't trust (Rogers) in the Senate." 

‘In the driver’s seat’

Rogers, who previously criticized Trump and his allies for attempting to overturn 2020 election results, reconciled with the former president this year and accepted his endorsement in March. 

An initially crowded field featuring a self-funded candidate and other former members of Congress, coupled with initially lackluster fundraising, meant Rogers’ path to the Republican nomination wasn’t always clear. 

Despite taking occasional heat from his opponents on the airwaves and social media, however, Rogers has largely emerged unscathed. Support from the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC that has already spent millions supporting his campaign, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has further bolstered his efforts.  

“It does feel like this race is set now,” said Jessica Taylor, senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, adding that Rogers is “very clearly in the driver's seat in the primary.” 

The Army veteran and former FBI agent was also a Michigan state lawmaker before successfully running for Congress in 2000. He served there for 14 years before retiring to Florida and working as a CNN commentator and as an advisor for information technology companies. 

Since running for U.S. Senate, his top policy goals have included securing the U.S.-Mexico border, lowering the cost of groceries, stopping the “economic threat” that China poses to the automotive industry, curbing violent crime and improving child literacy.

Rogers previously told Bridge he believes he’s the Republican candidate best able to reach moderate voters and said he’s focused on providing “real solutions” to pervasive issues. 

Amash goes on the attack

Rogers’ last remaining high-profile challenger in the race is former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, a West Michigan politician known for his libertarian views and willingness to buck the party line if proposed policies conflicted with his principles. 

Amash, who did not respond to requests for comment from Bridge, has said if elected he plans to defend individual rights and oppose “reckless spending and the weaponization of government” regardless of which party holds the presidency. 

He’s repeatedly blasted Rogers for his record on government surveillance issues, at one point calling him “the worst establishment candidate that you could ever imagine.” 

The son of Palestinian and Syrian immigrants, Amash has said he hopes to appeal to Michigan’s Arab American voters disillusioned by both parties amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and believes he has a chance to topple Rogers in the primary. 

“I've been…in these races many times, and I've been in a lot of battles where I was viewed, initially at least, as the underdog and then won by a substantial margin,” Amash told The Detroit News. 

Amash this week earned an endorsement from U.S. Sen. Rand Paul. The Kentucky Republican called him “one of the few we can count on to defend the Constitution, oppose endless war and executive overreach, and stop the weaponization of government.”  

Observers who spoke with Bridge said they did not see a path to statewide victory for Amash, pointing to his lack of campaign ads and name recognition among voters outside of West Michigan.

“He’s not a factor at all,” pollster Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research and Communications said of Amash. “This is a two-way race between Slotkin and Rogers.” 

Some Michigan Republicans who say they otherwise appreciate Amash’s policy stances can’t get over his previous break with the party and 2019 vote to impeach Trump.

Tudor Dixon, a former Republican candidate for governor, interviewed Amash on her podcast, prefacing the conversation with the comment, “This guy and I do not agree.” 

“What if you got elected and you went in and you just impeached him and threw him out of there?” she asked Amash of Trump, adding, “All of this sounds like that person that I want to go in there to fight against some of these crazy things, but there's a lot of caution around you too.”

Amash responded that he believes impeachment “should be used more often, but against everyone.”

“I’m happy to work with (Trump), and happy to support him on the things where we agree,” Amash said on the podcast. “I won’t say things I don’t believe to get his affection.”

Rounding out the Republican ticket is O’Donnell, a Berrien County physician, pastor and author who has never held elected office. Her priorities include “medical freedom,” lowering taxes, instituting term limits for members of Congress. 

While she’s gained some traction in grassroots conservative circles – and earned an endorsement from musician Ted Nugent — O’Donnell faces long odds at winning over the statewide Republican electorate. 

A tossup general election

Stabenow’s retirement opened up a swing state seat as national Republicans make a serious play for control of the upper chamber and Democrats seek to hold their one-seat majority.

In the Republican primary, turnout trends will likely prove more interesting than the results themselves as an indicator of enthusiasm, said David Dulio, director of the Center for Civic Engagement and professor of political science at Oakland University.

“What does Mike Rogers’ performance look like in Macomb…where Trump is going to be incredibly strong? Is he creating the same kind of excitement that they would want to see?” Dulio said.

The Cook Political Report recently recategorized the general election race from leaning Democratic to a true toss-up, a change Taylor of the Cook Political Report attributed to Democratic upheaval in the presidential election and Rogers’ dominance in the primary. 

Slotkin has long dominated the field in fundraising and has maintained a narrow lead above Rogers in hypothetical general election polling, though several observers told Bridge the final outcome could go either way depending on what happens at the top of the ticket. 

Facing flagging polling numbers and increasing pressure from high-profile Democrats to step aside amid questions over his fitness to run for a second term, President Joe Biden last week backed out of the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place on the ticket. 

Harris has since secured backing from enough Democratic delegates to make her the presumptive nominee.

Because down ballot races are often heavily impacted by what happens in the presidential election, how Harris fares against Trump in Michigan will be a key factor in who wins the seat in November, said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University.

“Another way of thinking about it is, how many Slotkin-Trump voters can there be? It's not going to be that many,” Grossmann said. “Democrats were losing in Michigan. So Harris will have to improve upon Biden, for them to win and for it to be helpful for other candidates.”