Ten ways Michigan may change under Trump, from doctors and EVs to school lunch

• Donald Trump is promising big changes that could have big ripple effects in Michigan
• School lunches may be more nutritious and it may be easier to find a family doctor
• Some neighbors may be deported, and lower-come residents may pay more for worse health insurance

From higher prices for electric vehicles to deportations to hope for fixing the state’s doctor shortage, the new administration of President-elect Donald Trump is likely to have a huge impact on Michigan families and businesses.

Campaign promises don’t always become policy, and some ideas are harder (or less popular) to put into practice than expected. 

Related:

• Pass or fail: How Trump’s education plans could impact Michigan kids
• What a Donald Trump presidency means for Michigan’s environment

Still, Trump will enter the White House on Jan. 20 with a basket of bold proposals that could upend everything from education and pollution cleanup to medical care, subsidized insurance and even school lunches.

Here are 10 ways policy changes under Trump could change life in ways large and small in Michigan.

Impact #1: A shift in auto policy

Trump wants to repeal the $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of electric vehicles, saying EVs will “decimate Michigan.”

Michigan is home to 12 assembly plants and 21% of nationwide auto production, and is in a race with other states, China and Tesla over the EV market.

The switch to electric has prompted anxiety among autoworkers, since EVs require about 100 fewer parts than their gas counterparts. But studies have suggested that the number of jobs would remain similar or even grow.

Michigan drivers have been slow to transition from gas: Only 3.2% of new car sales are electric vehicles, compared to about 9% nationwide. In all, less than 1% of vehicles on Michigan roads are plug-ins, about 43,000.  

Michigan has invested $1 billion in five electric vehicle battery plant proposals and promised another $1 billion, but most projects are behind schedule and as of June employed just 200 of more than 11,000 promised workers. 

Some predict that ending tax breaks would mirror what happened in Germany, when ending a EV subsidy resulted in a 37% plunge in EV sales in July, according to European sales totals. 

Impact #2: Tariffs 

Michigan is home to the busiest border crossing in North America (Detroit-Windsor) and Trump is proposing a 25% tax on all products entering the country from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on goods from China.

That would likely increase costs in Michigan, from the auto industry, which helps move some  $323 million worth of goods every day across  the Detroit border, to fresh fruit on grocery shelves to even the sticker prices at Dollar Tree.

Trump believes tariffs will boost the US economy by increasing demand for the products of American companies, and by encouraging foreign companies to build their products here, which would increase jobs. 

Many economists disagree. 

Impact #3: Fear of deportations

Trump’s vows to deport people who are illegally in the United States have sparked fears among Michigan’s 91,000 undocumented residents.

Julie Powers, executive director of Immigration Law & Justice Michigan, told Bridge that after the election, her phones in her offices have been “ringing off the hook” with families concerned about deportation.”

“We’re recommending to all our clients, you need to carry documentation of driver’s license, where you live, that you have a job, copies of paperwork at all times, and you need to create a safety plan for your children,” Powers said.

Recently, Trump has said he wants to end birthright citizenship, in which anyone born in the United States gains automatic citizenship, regardless of the citizenship of the parents. Doing so would face legal challenges and may not be constitutional. 

About 16,000 Michigan children who are US citizens because they were born in the country have at least one undocumented parent.

It’s unclear how feasible, logistically or financially, it would be to deport an estimated 11 million people living in the United States illegally. 

One study estimated it could cost as much as $300 billion to deport one million people in the span of one year.

The president-elect said recently that his administration would start by deporting undocumented residents with criminal records, but repeated a campaign promise to deport everyone here without legal status.

Impact #4: More family doctors?

Nearly 1 in 5 residents in Michigan is 65 or older, and there’s an acute doctor shortage that medical professionals hope Trump policies could curb.

His nominee for director of the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert Kennedy Jr, has suggested tilting federal funding from medical research and toward work on chronic diseases such as diabetes, high blood pressure and asthma.

That could tweak Medicaid reimbursement rates, which now are weighted toward services provided by specialists, rather than family doctors. That has led to new doctors choosing to go into specialties, where they can make more money, than into family medicine.

“We like the attention to the chronic diseases we face,” said Dr. Tom George, CEO of the Michigan State Medical Society. “There’s an eagerness to see new ideas.

Dr. Rachel Klamo, president of the Michigan Association of Family Practitioners, said medical professionals are encouraged by talk of trimming federal regulations that take time away from patient care.

“We fill out a lot of paperwork when we write a prescription,” Klamo said. “The number of useless clicks a doctor does in a day to get a simple task done is not efficient, but it’s a legal record.”

Impact #5: More kids in private school?

About 195,000 students 18 or younger in Michigan attend private schools, and their families could get a tax break under the Trump administration.

The policy as proposed now isn’t direct federal support of tuition, but a tax write-off for those who contribute to a private school to funds set up to financially assist students, said Josh Cowen, professor of education policy at Michigan State University.

Cowen said the proposal wouldn’t likely have an impact on Michigan’s traditional or charter public schools, because it isn’t taking any funds from them. 

But it could be a big break for private school families, if their tax-deductible contributions increase the scholarship funds available to their children, he said.

Impact #6: Declining vaccination rates?

Childhood immunization rates are declining nationwide and in Michigan, where about two-thirds of those ages 19 to 36 months completed their primary vaccine series.

In a recent interview with Time magazine, Trump suggested a potential connection between childhood vaccines and autism, and said his administration would study vaccine safety. He said the vaccines will undergo  “very serious testing,” after which “we will know for sure what's good and what's not good.”

Kennedy has said he would not “take away vaccines,” but he would have the ability to end a federal program that makes them free for many families.

As health secretary, Kennedy would oversee the Centers for Disease Control, which includes a committee that makes free immunizations available to more than half the children in the US, at a cost of $4.8 billion.

Impact #7: Health insurance changes

While the Affordable Care Act will likely survive another Trump administration, health insurance for those in poverty may worsen, said Dr. Mark Fendrick, a professor of health management and policy at the University of Michigan, who helped craft health policy during the first Trump stint in the White House.

Fendrick said there is “no appetite” for a full repeal of the President Barack Obama-era health care policy that extended health care coverage to millions of Americans and eliminated penalties for pre-existing conditions.

But there is an appetite for tax cuts, which have to be paid for through cuts to the federal budget, Fendrick said. 

And one target will be health care subsidies for low-income Americans. About 20 million people nationally received breaks in the cost of Affordable Care Act health insurance, at a cost to the federal government of about $125 billion. 

Those subsidies are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that about 2 million people would lose insurance, and the remainder of those now getting a break on insurance costs would pay more.

“Subsidies toward (the ACA) Marketplace health plans and Medicaid will be cut, so the have-nots will become the have even less,” Fendrick said. “All these people going through open enrollment (for Affordable Care Act coverage) now, their plans in 2025 are most likely to be as generous as they will be for the next four years.

“There will be some who think the sky is falling,” he said. “Don't get me wrong, it's coming, but it's all about trying to help the sky fall less quickly and less dangerously.”

Impact #8: Threats to college aid

Pell Grants, which provide funds to low-income Americans to help make college affordable, are likely safe, said Ryan Fewins-Bliss, executive director of the Michigan College Access Network, which advocates for greater college access and affordability for rural, urban and low-income students.

“I can’t imagine rural Republicans in districts with lots of Pell students are going to favor taking away Pell,” Fewins-Bliss said.

But other programs may be eliminated or cut, such as work-study federal aid and public service loan forgiveness, which forgives the remaining federal loan balances after 10 years in a public service job. 

One thing that is highly likely to happen: wiping out student loan forgiveness programs that President Joe Biden has pushed. Those are  likely to come to an end.

The federal government forgave $47 million in student loan debt for 6,040 Michigan borrowers. That’s a small fraction of the estimated 1.4 million student loan borrowers in Michigan

Impact #9: School lunches

Kennedy has said he wants to implement stricter controls on processed foods and dyes in school lunches.

Changes are possible, but they may be incremental. The national school lunch program is under the auspices of the US Department of Agriculture, a separate agency than the one Kennedy would lead if his nomination is approved. School lunches already have a higher bar for nutrition than the food on the shelves of grocery stores.

“While you may see Cinnamon Toast Crunch (cereal) in our cafeteria, it is reduced sugar compared to what you buy at the store,” said Mary Darnton, food service director at Jenison Public Schools and Hudsonville Schools in Ottawa County.  

“The hot dogs we serve, I buy the best turkey hot dog I can find with the least additives. Lunchables finally got into the school market a year ago (because until then) we couldn’t offer it because it didn’t meet our strict (nutrition) requirements.”

When nutrition requirements for school meals change, there is a delay built in for schools food suppliers to make changes. Improvements in nutrition are welcome, said Darnton, the former president of the Michigan School Nutrition Association, but Washington officials will have to be patient. “It’s like turning a cruise ship,” Darnton said.

Impact #10: Regulation rollback? 

A host of environmental regulations could be on the chopping block, including ones that regulate lead, water and PFAS, the flame retardant chemical linked to the contamination of 11,000 sites in Michigan.

Trump has also suggested cutting or decreasing tax breaks for green energy improvements like home solar systems.

Data from the Internal Revenue Service shows 117,000 Michigan households tapped into green energy tax credits last year, saving $134 million. The credits allow homeowners to claim 30% of solar systems as a federal tax credit. 

Bonus impacts: Things to watch

Other policy changes that could impact Michigan:

• Abortion access could change, including restrictions on medically induced abortions through the drug mifepristone. Trump has promised to protect access to medical abortions, which account for more than 60% of the 31,000 abortions performed in Michigan.
• Trump has said he wants to eliminate AmeriCorps, a federal program that puts recent college graduates to work for a year in nonprofits and other agencies, including  8,000 in Michigan.