‘Thumb on the scale'? Dems fund early launch in battle for Michigan Senate

PAC representing Michigan Senate Democrats spent more than $17,000 to fund a candidate’s campaign launch
Caucus PACs are banned from spending in contested primaries, but no other candidates had formally entered the race
The spending was the earliest of its kind in decades and shows how ‘party elites’ can influence elections, said one expert

LANSING — As major political parties began to gear up for this fall’s battle for the Michigan Legislature, a political action committee representing Senate Democrats got an early start last summer by funding a candidate’s campaign launch in what is expected to be one of the state’s most competitive districts.

Michigan’s caucus PACs are legally barred from spending in contested primaries, but the July 2025 spending for 13th District Senate candidate Sean Carlson was unique: The Democratic incumbent he’s seeking to replace had not yet publicly announced she wouldn’t seek re-election.

Carlson was the first candidate in the race to replace her, and he’s still the only Democrat vying for the battleground Oakland County seat. While others could still enter the race by the April 21 filing deadline, he remains uncontested heading toward the August primary.

Candidate recruitment has been a major part of Michigan legislative elections for decades, but the spending by Senate Democrats marks a level of early financial involvement from a powerful caucus PAC that hasn’t been seen in at least two decades, according to a Bridge Michigan analysis of campaign finance records.

It’s an example of how parties can use their financial resources and organizational assistance to put their “thumb on the scale and potentially fend off other folks,” said Michael Beckel, research director at the money-in-politics nonprofit Issue One.

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The Michigan Senate Democratic Fund paid $17,450 for a campaign website, photo shoot and media consulting for Carlson in late July 2025. About two weeks later, incumbent Sen. Rosemary Bayer, D-West Bloomfield, announced she wouldn’t seek re-election.

In an interview with Bridge this week, Carlson said he was approached nearly a year ago to run after being told Bayer may opt to retire.

“I sat down with some people and had some conversations from there,” said Carlson, who currently serves as a deputy executive for Oakland County. Senate Democrats want “to make sure that they’ve got some strong candidates,” he added.

Bayer endorsed Carlson to succeed her almost immediately after he announced his campaign.

It appears to be a “passing of the baton,” said Dave Dulio, a professor of political science at Oakland University.

“It certainly speaks to sort of centralized decisions and the party elites that are maybe playing more of a role than in other contests,” Dulio said. “It sends a signal that, ‘Hey, we’ve got our candidate.’”

A ‘very bold’ approach

The November general election race to replace Bayer is set to be highly competitive as major parties compete for control of the state Senate, where Democrats currently hold a one-seat advantage that Republicans are hoping to wipe out in a May special election.

Sen. Darrin Camilleri, a Trenton Democrat who chairs the campaign committee for Senate Democrats, asserted that if other candidates had come forward with an interest in running, the caucus would have held off on financial support for Carlson.

“Where we do have Democratic primaries, the caucus is not doing anything to interfere,” Camilleri told Bridge. He called the 13th district a “must-win” seat and said Democrats had had conversations with other potential candidates there.

“Because Sean is such a strong candidate, there was no other interest in other people running for that seat,” Camilleri said. “So we felt confident that he was well positioned to be our nominee.”

Each legislative election since 2018 has beaten the prior record for the most expensive in state history, and with every seat in the state House and Senate up for election again, 2026 may be no different.

“Our campaign-side operations will be very bold,” said Sen. Sarah Anthony, a Lansing Democrat and one of the campaign committee members for her chamber’s caucus. “Everyone sees the weight that this election has in shaping the trajectory of our state.”

Anthony, who noted she spent much of last year occupied by a contentious budgetary process, didn’t specify whether this kind of support will become a new normal for her caucus or others.

“I think that trying to throw everything at these candidates, particularly the ones that will ultimately be endorsed by our caucus, is going to be really important,” Anthony told Bridge. “You will see a stronger and a deeper level of involvement.”

Rosemary Bayer, Sean Carlson and Sarah Anthony — From left: State Sen. Rosemary Bayer, candidate Sean Carlson and Senate Appropriations Chair Sarah Anthony, a member of the Senate Democrats’ campaign committee (Courtesy of Michigan Senate Democrats and Sean Carlson for State Senate)

Carlson, by all accounts, has a resume primed for politics. He was a lieutenant colonel in the Air Force who later worked in state government under governors from both parties. He also has experience as staff in the state Legislature, has worked on economic development issues and spent 14 years as a local school board member.

The 13th district was reshaped amid a federal redistricting lawsuit in 2024, and now constitutes a mix of liberal and conservative communities in outer Oakland County. Carlson said the district is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.

“This is certainly going to be a tough and close, close election” no matter the candidates, he said.

Power of PACs

In that race, like others around the state, candidates will likely be relying on Michigan’s uniquely powerful caucus PACs during the general election, free of any primary spending restrictions.

Campaigns for House and Senate can only receive $1,225 and $2,450, respectively, per election cycle. Caucus PACs, meanwhile, can take up to $48,875 every year from donors.

But they become the predominant players in Michigan’s most competitive legislative races because they can spend unlimited amounts to support their parties’ candidates while directly coordinating with the campaigns, something other kinds of PACs can’t do. They — along with state party dark money accounts — have in recent elections poured millions of dollars into the state’s most competitive legislative races.

Bridge analyzed 20 years of campaign finance disclosures from Michigan’s four caucus PACs and found no other instances where a candidate has received Carlson’s level of support so long before a general election.

Under Michigan’s campaign finance law, the PACs can’t contribute to or spend money on candidates facing primary competition — historically they’ve waited until after the August primary to begin spending, outside of funding candidate filing fees to ensure their party is on the ballot in every legislative district.

That said, it doesn’t mean caucus PACs haven’t sought to exercise influence in past primaries in other ways.

“As well back as the 1990 election cycle, which is sort of the first one that I was around the Capitol for, there were preferred candidates — with caucus committee staff dedicated to assisting those candidates — before the primary,” Steve Liedel, an attorney with deep experience in Democratic politics. He didn’t see the caucus PAC’s spending as particularly significant.

It’s a contrast with the largest caucus-based committees in Congress. While they have spending limits, similar federal PACs have no limitations on primary involvement, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been more than willing to wade into contested primaries since 2018. To the chagrin of some progressive factions, the vast majority of the time DCCC-backed candidates have come out on top, leading to some enduring intraparty strife.

Carlson, however, demurred when asked if the caucus PAC’s support signals he’s the preferred candidate.

“Sen. Bayer has been very supportive of my candidacy and has endorsed me, and has gone around the district as we’ve visited different Democratic clubs And showing her her support and demonstrating the support,” Carlson said. “I really believe that’s a strong message that people are sharing.”

It’s unclear whether Carlson will still face any primary competition. Former state Rep. Ryan Berman has registered to seek the seat as a Republican, but didn’t respond to a request for an interview.

Dulio said it’s money, more than signals of party support, that ward off primary threats.

“The good fundraising numbers are what scares people away,” he said.