What Michigan’s primary portends for Trump, Harris presidential election

• Experts say Michigan has the potential for another high-turnout general election after more than 2 million voters showed up at polls Tuesday
• Polling suggests Republicans, Democrats both ‘highly motivated’ for presidential race between Donald Trump, Kamala Harris
• Voters on both sides of the aisle acknowledged new dynamics in the race since President Joe Biden ended reelection campaign

LANSING — Kamala Harris and Donald Trump weren't on the ballot Tuesday, but the presidential candidates’ shadows loomed large over primary elections that decided who they’ll share Democratic and Republican tickets with this fall.

Bridge Michigan spoke with several experts, officials and voters about what the primary might mean for the November presidential election, which will also feature high-stakes races for an open U.S. Senate seat, competitive U.S. House races and a battle for control of the state House. 

The results held lessons for both major parties, they said. Here’s what to know:

High turnout potential

About 2 million Michiganders voted in the Tuesday primary, according to full but unofficial results compiled by the state. 

That’s less than the 2.5 million people who voted in the August primary in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, but higher than the 1.4 million who voted in the August 2016 primary, which did not have a statewide race at the top of the ticket like this year’s U.S. Senate contest.

The latest Michigan numbers suggest Michigan could still be in line for a high-turnout general election this fall, according to Corwin Smidt, a Michigan State University political science professor who tracks voter turnout. 

And Tuesday turnout was likely enough to dispel anxiety that crucial constituencies are checked out heading into the fall, he said, noting voters generally seem engaged.

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Michigan Democrats have fared well in recent high-turnout elections, including 2020 and 2022, but the primary turnout numbers don’t necessarily mean that will be the case this November, Smidt told Bridge Michigan.

“What it does mean is that, in terms of this stuff about people sitting out (or portesting) … there's no evidence that right now there's people sitting on the sidelines,” he said. 

In the 2020 general election, nearly 5.6 million Michiganders showed up to vote — nearly 70% of registered voters. 

Turnout is expected to be proportionately lower this time around, largely because the number of registered voters in the state has grown by 1.4 million in the interim, and removing inactive voters from the rolls is a lengthy process.

The Harris ‘sugar high’ reverberates

Rich Czuba, pollster of Glengariff Group, noted a recent sea change in Democratic sentiment since President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid and Kamala Harris took his place.

That’s been palpable throughout the state, he said. 

“This enthusiasm we're seeing on the Democratic side came as a direct result of Biden stepping aside,” Czuba told Bridge. “We saw in our numbers the motivation to vote amongst Democratic voters, particularly younger Democratic voters, under-30 Black Democratic voters just shot through the roof.”

Czuba's most recent public polling, conducted in late July after Harris replaced Biden, showed her in a statistical tie with Trump among Michigan voters.It also pointed to what Czuba called a "highly motivated electorate.”

Both Democratic and Republican voters registered high rates of enthusiasm in the survey, indicating "the likelihood of an extraordinary voter turnout in November," he wrote in an accompanying analysis. 

Voter sentiments

Voters who spoke to Bridge on Tuesday also noted a mood shift since Democrats replaced Biden on the top of the ticket. 

“I would have still voted for Joe, but it was just as a vote to say I'm not going to vote for Donald Trump,” said Michael Putney, who had already voted absentee but accompanied his daughter to a Cascade Township polling place. “But now with Kamala, it's a lot of enthusiasm to vote for her.”

The new race dynamics also had an impact on some Republican voters, including Jake Stoutjesdyk, a Trump supporter who felt confident about the election this fall but said he is reevaluating that. 

“It was pretty slam dunk after that (June 27) debate for Trump and his team,” Stoutjesdyk said. Now, “I don’t know,” he added.

Still some Democratic concerns

In Dearborn, home to Michigan’s largest Arab-American community, turnout decreased just slightly relative to the 2022 August primary. 

More voters had participated in the Democratic gubernatorial primary — where Gretchen Whitmer ran unopposed — than in the U.S. Senate primary that Elissa Slotkin won over Hill Harper.  

A chief issue for voters in the city is the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Arab-American leaders in the city had vowed not to support Biden over his support of Israel in the conflict, which has led to nearly 40,000 Palestinian deaths.

Dearborn mayor Abdullah Hammoud told Bridge in an interview that with Harris as nominee “the door has been cracked open” for a reconciliation, but “enthusiasm is not there. If you can’t turn out your base you’re in trouble.”

“Tough rhetoric … has to be paired with tough policy,” Hammoud added. “If she can get it right, 100 days is a long time.”

Concerns of chaos

Some Republican voters raised concerns over what they said amounted to a Democratic bait-and-switch in the presidential race. 

“It’s chaos,” said Tom Bieniewicz, a Republican voter in Ada. “Things are very chaotic right now” due to the shifting state of the presidential candidates, he added.

Susan Skutt, another voter in Ada, said he was nervous about Harris’ ascendency to the Democratic nomination but still hopeful for Republicans’ chances. Her husband, Tim Skutt, was more wary. 

“I think there's like a combination of enthusiasm and apprehension,” he said.

Optimism abounds

State leaders for both major political parties touted momentum coming out of the Tuesday primary as they gear up for the presidential election this fall.

The Michigan GOP is “excited to work alongside all our nominees this cycle to flip a Senate seat, expand our majority in the House of Representatives, and take back our majority in the Michigan State House,” Chairman Pete Hoekstra said in a statement. 

“Together, we'll show Michiganders that conservative policies will stabilize our economy, lower the cost of living, secure our borders, and bring peace to the world stage again."

Democrats, meanwhile, are “fired up,” state party Chair Lavora Barnes told Bridge in a statement. 

“Yesterday’s primary was just the next step in energizing voters to come together this November and beat Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans up and down the ballot,” Barnes said.

Moderate momentum?

Michigan elections are often decided by moderate and independent voters, and Tuesday night results signaled a potential desire for more centrist politics.

In Ottawa County, for instance, an ultraconservative political movement is waning. Ottawa Impact — which briefly controlled that county’s commission with a supermajority in 2023 – saw just 4 of its nine candidates advance to the general election. The rest were defeated in Republican primaries, including many by more moderate candidates backed by a rival group called Ottawa Integrity. 

Even if they sweep the general election, Ottawa Impact candidates will control at most four of the 11-member Board of Commissioners next year. 

Michigan allows crossover voting, meaning voters who affiliate with one political party can vote in another’s primary. That has allowed non-Republican voters to also have a say in deeply conservative areas like Ottawa County — at least when the primary is contested.

“We saw kind of what I call the good governance Republicans, independents and Democratic voters uniting, which is really unique,” Czuba, the pollster, told Bridge.

Elsewhere, state Rep. Neil Friske, a Charlevoix Republican and member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, was unseated in his primary by a GOP opponent, Parker Fairbairn, who took 63% of the vote.

Two acquitted suspects in the 2020 kidnapping plot against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Eric Molitor and William Null, also lost races for Wexford County Sheriff and Orangeville Township trustee, respectively.