- Mike Duggan’s departure resets Michigan governor’s race in political climate he — and experts — say increasingly favors Democrats
- Duggan ran as an independent but said his path closed due to voter frustration with war, gas prices under President Donald Trump
- Strategists say national politics will likely shape what is now poised to be a traditional race between major party candidates
DETROIT — It’s a whole new Michigan governor’s race after independent Mike Duggan dropped out Thursday, again upending a contest he’d upended 16 months prior when he left the Democratic Party to run.
Duggan said voter frustration with the Iran war and resulting gas prices under Republican President Donald Trump closed off what he had thought was a promising path for an independent campaign.
Those same factors could benefit the eventual Democratic nominee in what is now poised to be a traditional major party contest that will likely be shaped by national politics, experts said Thursday.
“I told everybody … if there comes a point where I don’t think there’s a path forward, I won’t continue to pursue” the governorship, Duggan said during an early afternoon press conference in Detroit.
“I never ran to be a spoiler. I was trying to change politics.”
Related:
- Mike Duggan drops governor bid in Michigan election shocker
- Read Mike Duggan’s statement on ending his campaign for Michigan governor
- Officials: 2 governor hopefuls, 1 Senate candidate should be kept off ballot
Other candidates — Democrats and Republicans alike — were quick to praise Duggan as they now compete for his supporters, particularly the independents and moderates who often decide close Michigan elections.
What does Duggan’s departure mean for the race?
Political consultants and pollsters interviewed by Bridge Michigan were nearly unanimous: Duggan’s exit will be a boon for Democrats, despite recent polling suggesting he was pulling more voters from Republicans.
“I suspect every Democrat in Lansing and around the state is elated, and every Republican is the opposite,” said GOP pollster Steve Mitchell.
Democrats still in the running: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson and longshot Kimberly Thomas, who may not make the ballot due to faulty signatures.
For Republicans: US Rep. John James, businessman Perry Johnson, former Attorney General Mike Cox, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and Pastor Ralph Rebandt, who is also facing potential disqualification.
Duggan’s decision to drop out is “great news for Jocelyn,” said Adrian Hemond, a Democratic strategist with the bipartisan Grassroots Midwest firm in Lansing.
“This basically kicks off the general election,” Hemond said, predicting a November matchup between Benson and James but adding that Johnson has a “non-zero chance” to win the GOP primary.
Scott Greenlee, a Republican consultant, argued it was too early to tell who might benefit from Duggan’s departure.
“There is a large sector of the electorate who is not happy with either party currently that might have come out and voted with a true credible independent candidate,” Greenlee said.
But Michigan’s major parties strove to undermine that credibility: Duggan was called a Democrat by Republicans and a Republican by Democrats who were chagrined by his decision to leave the party.
Greenlee predicted the wealthy donor base that had funded Duggan’s independent endeavor would more than likely return to their prior partisan affiliations.
What happens to Duggan’s supporters?
Duggan made clear he won’t be endorsing before the Aug. 4 primary.
“But if there are candidates in this state that take up the message of fixing the schools, fixing affordable housing, getting the jobs of the future by working together, I’m going to be open to endorsing them in the fall campaign,” he said.
“So I’m going to be watching along with a whole lot of my supporters.”
A general election endorsement by Duggan — if he ultimately makes one — could carry some weight given his ties to the business community and work in Detroit.
But many of his supporters will more than likely be wooed back to their prior partisan affiliations, said Hemond, the Democratic strategist.
“We’re already starting to see some evidence of Democrats starting to come home, which is what you can expect Republicans to do as well.”
Why did Duggan drop out?
After a promising start on both fronts, Duggan acknowledged he was falling behind in polling and fundraising while trying to compete in a national political environment that increasingly favored Democrats.
Duggan called those developments “headwinds.”
“And as each day goes by, they move from headwinds to hurricane winds,” said pollster Richard Czuba, who told Bridge the electoral outlook improves for Democrats every day that gas remains at $5 a gallon.
“This election’s a referendum on Trump, and that offers a really, really difficult environment for Duggan,” said Czuba, whose recent polling for the Detroit Regional Chamber — which had endorsed Duggan — saw independent support shift toward Benson.
Duggan launched his independent campaign in December 2024, shortly after Trump had tapped into broad dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party to reclaim the presidency.
But by April of this year, “Democrats (and many Independents) were unified in anger” by high gas prices and Trump’s war in Iran, Duggan wrote in a letter explaining his decision to drop out.
“The independent candidacy, while it was going to be difficult no matter what, only makes sense in the context of the relative party brands in 2024,” Hemond, the Democratic strategist, told Bridge.
“That’s not where we’re at anymore.”
Duggan hasn’t had to disclose any fundraising totals yet this year, but the fact he mentioned his financial struggles publicly is telling, said Republican consultant John Sellek, who was surprised to see him exit the race so early.
“If he was financially able to fund a campaign, like maybe an independent businessperson would, I feel like we wouldn’t see him getting out yet — maybe not at all,” Sellek said.
What’s next for Duggan?
Duggan chose not to seek reelection as Detroit mayor to run for governor, and he is now left without a job. He said Thursday he doesn’t know what’s next but plans to “make up on lost time with my family.”
Asked if he has an interest in the vacant presidency at the University of Michigan, Duggan said he has had “zero conversation with anybody about any job” but “can’t control” speculation about his future prospects.
He is, for now, a former politician without a party.
“He’s going to have a tough time going back to the Democrats, and I don’t think the Republicans would necessarily welcome him if you did a full party switch,” said Greenlee, the GOP consultant. “Maybe, but it’d be a tough sell.”
Is there a path for independents?
Duggan had attempted to make history by running in a state that had never elected an independent as governor.
While there is “enormous support” for an independent at the ground level, a lack of national fundraising support posed challenges for him, he said Thursday.
“Somebody is going to break through, but I’ll make a prediction: it’s somebody who’s got the wealth to be self-funded,” he told reporters.
Pressed if he thinks that means voters want a candidate rich enough to support their own campaign — like Johnson, the GOP businessman who had pledged to spend millions in the governor’s race — Duggan demurred.
“I’m saying there’s a national clamor for somebody who will stand up and say, ‘I’m tired of the two parties fighting with each other. We can solve problems together’ and has the resources to do it,” Duggan said.
Duggan also sidestepped questions about whether he had any interest in helping those national fundraising pipelines for independent candidates in the future, saying: “I’ve literally given no thought to anything beyond getting through today and calling and thanking everybody.”
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