COVID deaths decline steeply in 2024; spread muted so far in winter

• COVID-19 deaths in Michigan dropped significantly in 2024, with about 1,400 deaths compared to more than 2,900 in 2023
• The virus is now causing about as many deaths as the flu and pneumonia in Michigan
• Experts attribute the decline to growing immunity from vaccinations and prior infections, but caution the virus is still present

Nearly four years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, the virus is killing far fewer people in Michigan — and isn’t spreading as swiftly in the winter as previous years.

As of Dec. 17, the virus had caused about 1,400 deaths, less than half of last year and on par with the typical annual losses from flu and pneumonia, records show.

From 2020 to 2022, an average of 13,700 people died per year of COVID-19 in Michigan.

“The biggest danger is long past,” said Eric Pessell, health officer for Calhoun County, which has recorded 15 COVID-19 deaths this year, down from 40 in 2023 and far below the average of over 225 from 2020 to 2022.

If the numbers hold, COVID-19 will likely be the No. 10 cause of death in Michigan in 2024, down from No. 3 in 2020 and 2021 when only heart disease and cancer claimed 

Unlike in previous years, overall COVID infections rose at the end of the summer but did not continue to climb into the autumn and the cooler months, the data shows.

In mid-September, there were roughly 5,300 new infections recorded in Michigan, just under the 5,800 recorded in the same time a year earlier.

But over the last four weeks, the average number of new weekly infections has been 1,700, just one-quarter of the weekly average of 6,700 in 2023. 

That positive trend, experts say, reflects the power of the growing immunity from vaccinations, infections or both.

“We've shown conclusively that COVID-19 infections are less severe and less frequent after infection or vaccination,” Emily Toth-Martin, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has tracked COVID-19’s genetic changes, wrote in an email exchange with Bridge Michigan. “That is why you see hospitalizations and deaths decreasing so dramatically.”

The decline in cases, serious illness and deaths have allowed public health officials to go back to a broader practice of treating respiratory illnesses, Pessell said, no longer solely focused on the dangers of a virus that has claimed more than 45,000 lives in Michigan and 1.2 million nationwide.

“Our focus is on ‘all’ respiratory disease — COVID, flu, RSV to name a few,” Pessell said.

Toth Martin of U-M said she hopes the trend holds so officials “can turn our attention towards supporting those people with long COVID and protecting those people who are at risk of seeing the virus for the first time.”

Researchers have predicted the “end” of COVID-19 before, only to see it mutate and surge. But most said it would eventually become endemic that followed predictable patterns.

“This is what I would have thought would have happened,” said Adam Lauring, a U-M epidemiologist who focused on COVID-19 during the pandemic.

But he cautioned that the virus has not gone away and it continues to mutate. “The virus is still out there,” he said. “People still need to be aware.” 

The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services continues to recommend vaccines for COVID-19 and influenza, said spokesperson Lynn Sutfin.

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That’s particularly true for older residents.

Indeed, in the last year, those 70 or older, have comprised a growing share of all COVID-19 deaths. Before 2024, they made up 67.5% of all COVID-19 deaths. In 2024, that percentage jumped to 76%.

Lauring of U-M said older patients are more likely to have other medical conditions that make them more vulnerable. He said it is often more difficult for older patients to get a “good immunity response” from the vaccine, which is why the CDC recommends two doses.