Are Michigan population woes improving? Moving data offers signs of hope

• The gap is narrowing between those leaving and arriving in Michigan, moving companies report
• Housing affordability may be a key factor attracting people to Michigan, with the state ranking 38th in median home value
• Also: work-related moves out of Michigan have decreased, while retirement-related moves have also declined in recent years.

Michigan’s battle with the border is improving, with two national moving companies reporting that fewer people are relocating out of the state.

Both United and Atlas van lines, in December and January reports, still show moves out of Michigan still outnumber those coming into the state.

But the gap has narrowed to their lowest level since 2020, an encouraging sign that follows Census data last month that showed a similar trend.

“It’s an interesting trend that we’re keeping an eye on,” said Jaclyn Butler, the Michigan state demographer with the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics, which provides data and analysis to state agencies.

Related:

• Immigration helps Michigan gain 57K residents, losses to other states shrink
• Michigan continues to bleed residents, losses to other states double in 2023

Both United and Atlas reported that 48% of Michigan-related moves were inbound and 52% were outbound. Just two years ago, the gap was 16 percentage points — 42% in and 58% out.

In a separate report this month, U-Haul ranked Michigan 43rd in growth, up from 46th a year earlier. In December, the US Census Bureau reported the state’s net loss to other states had fallen to about 7,600 residents, less than half the loss in 2023 and a fraction of the 29,200-person loss in 2021.

In the mid-2000s, the annual loss almost reached 100,000.

The relatively good news comes as Michigan has struggled with ways to attract new residents, after its population ranked 49th in growth from 1990 to 2020 behind only West Virginia.

Michigan now is home to 10,140,459 residents, about 80,000 more than it had in 2004. In the past 20 years, the state’s population had fallen below 10 million before eclipsing that threshold in 2021.

Butler, the state demographer, said recent surveys of migrants have shown that housing is the No. 1 reason people are moving and noted that Michigan is 38th in median home value, at $236,100.

“Michigan, in terms of housing, is more affordable,” Butler said.

The state’s unemployment rate is still one of the highest nationwide, but at 4.8%, it’s far closer to the national rate — 4.2% — than in most years. Michigan’s economy is no longer far worse than the nation.

That also tracks survey data from United. In 2020, the company’s surveys found that 54% of those leaving Michigan were doing so for work; it was the reason 27% left last year.

Butler said one factor may be fewer people are leaving the state: older people are less likely to move, and Michigan has an aging population, with a median age of 40.

The United Van Lines data also showed the percentage of people retiring out of state has fallen as well, to 17.5%, down from 27% and 26% in 2021 and 2022.

Better data, from the IRS which tracks where people are filing from and where they were the prior year, will be available later in the year.

In 2023, in response to the state’s population woes, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer formed a commission of business and civic leaders to look for ways to increase population. It suggested education reforms, increased public transportation and millions in community investments.

Largely because of an increase in international migrants, Michigan added an estimated 57,103 people in 2024, according to Census Bureau estimates. Although the wave of international migrants was a substantial driver of the increase, a drop in the losses to other states was another factor, experts said.

Whitmer’s growth office, created in 2023, lauded the news, saying the state’s “positive momentum” is the result of “growth-oriented” policies, including expanded pre-K education and improved incentives for business.

“Michigan has been — and will continue to be — intentional about creating innovative, first-of-their-kind programs and engaging Michiganders in the growth effort, telling our story across the state and nation, and working together to create a more prosperous place to call home for all Michiganders – current and future,” Brittany Hill, a spokesperson for the growth office, said in a statement to Bridge.