• Meteorologists expect La Niña to form this fall, raising the odds of a wetter Michigan winter 
  • Southern Michigan may see more precipitation, while northern areas remain unpredictable
  • Winter driving risks remain high, with past La Niña years showing increased crashes

A wetter winter may be on the way for Michigan as forecasters predict a likely return of La Niña that could shape the season through January.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a 71% chance a La Niña will form this winter and influence weather across much of the country. 

The seasonal precipitation outlook for November through January forecasts at least a 40% chance of more precipitation across Michigan, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 

Meteorologists point to the return of La Niña as a key factor behind the expected increase in precipitation. Cooler Pacific waters can shift the jet stream north, setting up colder and stormier weather than usual in parts of the northern United States, while the southern states tend to be warmer and drier than average.

RELATED: 

Michigan has already seen some snowfall this year. Last year, it didn’t snow in metro Detroit until Nov. 29, when the region received over an inch-and-a-half of snow, the Weather Service confirmed. 

The seasonal temperature outlook shows much of the southern Lower Peninsula could experience warmer temperatures, which means much of the precipitation may not linger. 

“We have to have colder temperatures below 32 degrees in order to get snow. If we have warmer weather, we could still see that precipitation as rain,” said Megan Varcie, meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Detroit office. 

“Even if we get above-average temperatures, that doesn’t necessarily equate to above-freezing temperatures,” she added. 

In the northern Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula, it’s a toss-up: Temperatures could be above or below average. 

What does this mean for drivers? 

Michigan experienced a “double decker” when La Niña conditions were present in both 2021 and 2022, and the state saw more crashes those years. 

In 2021, Michigan recorded 282,640 crashes, up from 245,432  in the previous year, when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions were present. That number reached 293,341 in 2022 before declining to 287,953 in 2023, which was a strong El Niño year,during which the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is warmer, resulting in milder conditions during the wintertime. 

November was the peak month for crashes in 2021 and 2022, with 30,666 and 32,560 November crashes in those years, respectively. 

“As we head into the fall and winter months, Michigan drivers can prepare for the winter season by slowing down, eliminating distractions, and staying alert for changing road conditions,” said Lt. Rene Gonzalez, public information officer for the 1st District of the Michigan State Police. “Simple steps like giving yourself extra travel time, ensuring your vehicle is winter-ready, and remaining aware of your surroundings make a significant difference.” 

Surviving the winter months

AAA recommends the following to Michigan drivers preparing for winter: 

  • Check the forecast before heading out and adjust plans if needed
  • Carry an emergency kit with warm clothing, water, snacks, chargers, warning triangles and an ice scraper
  • Drive at a speed that matches conditions and increase following distance to eight to 10 seconds on slick roads
  • Give plows and maintenance trucks plenty of space and pass only on the left.
  • Watch for icy spots on bridges and intersections
  • Avoid braking on ice; slow down before you reach it and steer in the direction you need to go 
  • Clear all snow and ice from your vehicle before driving
  • Check your battery, since cold weather reduces starting power
  • Keep tires properly inflated as pressure drops in colder temperatures
  • Make sure wiper blades work well; consider winter blades in snowy areas
  • Fill the washer reservoir with winter fluid that won’t freeze

Creative Commons License

Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under our Republication Guidelines. Questions? Email republishing@bridgemi.com