Michigan winter may be warm — and wet

Much of eastern Michigan, including the Thumb region may experience warmer-than-average temperatures this winter
The entire state could see a wetter winter overall, with more rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain and hail
Climate experts say this year will also be a La Niña winter, which typically causes cooler temperatures in the north

Michiganders wary of bitter cold winters may be in luck this year, because temperatures in parts of the state are expected to be warmer than average. But heavier precipitation could still bring snow.

Much of the eastern part of the state, including the Thumb, has a 33%-40% chance of warmer-than-average temperatures in December, January and February, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal temperature outlook.

That would continue a streak of unseasonably warm temperatures present throughout much of the year. However, the rest of Michigan has about equal chances of above- or below-average temperatures this winter.

A graphic of the seasonal outlook for USA

Parts of Michigan are likely to see above-average temperatures this winter. (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration)

The federal agency also says the entire state has a high probability for above average precipitation in December, January and February.

There is about a 33%-50% chance that this winter will be wetter than normal, meaning more rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain and hail is possible.

The NOAA’s winter outlook is consistent with predictions by meteorologists at Accuweather, who forecast higher-than-average temperatures and a possible “uptick of snow” for Michigan.

Whether that snow sticks to the ground — or quickly melts — is another question.

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That will depend on how warm it is in December, January and February, when temperatures are usually in the 20s and 30s, said Faith Fredrickson, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Gaylord office.

Warm weather last winter, an increasingly frequent byproduct of climate change, forced the cancellation of Michigan sled dog races and the early closure of ski resorts, among other things.

A graphic from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration

It’s expected to be a wet winter in Michigan, with above-average levels of precipitation (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration)

Experts also say this winter will be a La Niña winter, a weather phenomenon that pushes warm water further east, bringing cold water to the surface and causing the jet stream to bring cooler air further north.

La Niña generally causes cooler-than-normal temperatures up north and drought in the southern U.S. However, temperatures have been above average throughout the year, and persistent drought conditions have led to high fire danger resulting in wildfires in Michigan.

“Typically, the pattern for La Niña favors cooler or air-normal temperatures for the upper Midwest, including the Great Lakes,” Fredrickson said. “Because we’ll be right near that border, sometimes that can fluctuate a little bit to the west or a little bit to the east.”

The warmer temperatures predicted for this winter, despite it being during a La Niña year, are likely caused by Michigan being in between two regions where the temperatures are expected to be warmer or colder than normal.