Can John James close the gap on Jocelyn Benson in the Michigan governor's race?

Democrat Jocelyn Benson is outspending Republican John James, leading in the polls and already planning a gubernatorial transition
With national Republican groups pulling back financial support, James is turning to grassroots campaigning and cultural issues
Dynamics echo 2022, when Republican Tudor Dixon lost to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Democrats won down ticket

GROSSE POINTE WOODS — Three weeks out from Election Day, a stark split-screen has emerged in the race for Michigan governor.

Democrat Jocelyn Benson is preparing another multi-million dollar ad blitz and, beyond her own race, openly talking about the possibility that her party wins majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature.

Republican John James is losing national financial support but says he’s working to build “word of mouth” at individual campaign stops, like a Monday event focused on transgender children in school sports.

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With voting season well underway, James is being significantly outspent on the airwaves. Four different polling-based models show Benson leading by 7 to 8 percentage points. And Benson’s campaign is already well into planning what her administration could look like.

“I always say, don’t listen to what the campaigns tell you” about the state of the race, said pollster Richard Czuba. “Watch what the campaigns are doing.”

Heading into October, Benson and her allies were slated to outspend James roughly $23 million to $1 million on TV ads, according to AdImpact data. The Republican Governors Association, which had been spending to support James, has withdrawn nearly all of its reserved ad time in the campaign’s final stretch.

The RGA’s withdrawal is “a signal of exactly where this race is for governor,” said Czuba.

James brushed aside the spending imbalance Monday, saying “people have tuned out these divisive ads” and that his campaign will be relying on “press coverage, social media,” and “word of mouth,” to get his message to voters in the final stretch.

“We’re using a grassroots approach, and I’m confident that that approach is what resonates with people,” James said in Grosse Pointe Woods, where he was joined by a handful of supporters at a local GOP office. “…We’re excited about the momentum we’re getting all around the state.”

Preparing for a win

The campaigns also appear to be in starkly different places when it comes to planning for the gubernatorial transition should they win the election to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

At this point in the election, “if you’re not doing some level of transition work, you’re way behind in the process,” said Chris DeWitt, a strategist who worked with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Republican Gov. Rick Snyder.

Two sources familiar with Benson’s transition planning but not authorized to speak for the campaign said former state Senate Minority Leader Jim Ananich has been leading the effort, which began weeks ago. He has been meeting with potential Benson cabinet members and department heads in Lansing.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, speaks at a campaign event at the Trade Union Leadership Council Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

James’ campaign only recently began transition planning, according to two sources familiar with the campaign but not authorized to discuss it. One GOP source called it a nascent effort and downplayed its seriousness.

The James’ campaign disputed that characterization, telling Bridge Michigan “we are not waiting to get to work.”

“The James administration will not be made up of political insiders or corrupt Lansing lobbyists but of people who are dedicated to ridding Lansing of the waste, fraud and abuse that has gone on for far too long,” spokesperson Alyvia Bailey said in a statement.

Benson’s campaign declined to comment on transition planning, but press secretary Rajan Srinivasan told Bridge Michigan in a statement “we’re not taking a single vote for granted.”

‘Echoes of 2022’

With national Republican groups again failing to support Michigan’s gubernatorial nominee, “there’s echoes of 2022,” said Kyle Olson, who was a senior adviser to 2022 GOP nominee Tudor Dixon.

Four years ago, Dixon also seized on culture wars education issues in the final weeks of her campaign. She ended up losing to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by nearly 11 percentage points.

“I think John’s in an unfair spot because the reality is, in order to compete statewide, you have to have millions and millions of dollars,” said Olson, who founded The Midwesterner conservative news outlet after Dixon’s loss. “He won a primary convincingly, and then he’s just left twisting in the wind.”

With a national GOP group canceling planned spending, Republican gubernatorial nominee John James says he’ll rely on press coverage, social media and ‘word of mouth’ to get his message out to voters. (Paul Sancya/Associated Press)

In 2022, the gubernatorial race was the state’s marquee election. This year, however, there’s a nationally significant US Senate race on the ballot, too, and some Republicans have expressed concerns that the lack of support for James could have ripple effects in down-ballot races.

Earlier this month, Republican strategist John Yob called on “outside groups and super wealthy individuals who care about Michigan’s future to invest in the top of (the) GOP ticket before it’s too late.

“Mike Rogers, three congressmen, attorney general, secretary of state and potentially the state legislature depend on it,” added Yob, who ran the $33 million campaign of Perry Johnson, who lost to James in the primary.

Benson, meanwhile, appears positioned to benefit from late spending by national Democratic groups. She’s held multiple events with legislative candidates in a bid to help Democrats win full control in Lansing and later this month will rally with President Barack Obama in Detroit.

A play for the base

James has placed his education agenda at the center of his campaign. His Monday press conference focused on a more narrow issue: Transgender kids in school sports, which he wants to prohibit.

“I’m teaching my little boys to respect their mother, open doors, yes, ma’am, no, ma’am, and never to put your hands on a woman,” he said.

“But then we celebrate when biological men can physically dominate biological females on the field? That seems different than what we’ve been teaching our young men over generations.”

In 2025, the Michigan High School Athletic Association provided waivers allowing two transgender students to compete. Legislative Republicans have proposed a statewide ban.

Asked about his focus, James said transgender high school athletes are “absolutely not” central to his agenda, going on to discuss his plans to address Michigan students’ poor literacy scores.

But to Czuba, the pollster, James’ messaging suggests “he is struggling to keep his base right now” because transgender athletic policies are “not an issue for independents.”

With more than 440,000 early ballots already cast in Michigan, the window for persuading voters is swiftly closing, meaning James has only limited opportunities to make up ground.

“There isn’t much you can drop right now that’s going to swing anybody,” said DeWitt, the strategist.

A fuller view of each campaign’s resources won’t come into view until the end of next week, when the gubernatorial campaigns file their final financial disclosures before the election.

The candidates will meet for their second debate on Thursday at WDIV-TV studios in Detroit.