- Donald Trump made more than 100 specific promises to Michigan during his 24 state rallies running for president in 2024
- Bridge is tracking progress on all of them. So far, Michigan’s economy is far from the ‘miracle’ he promised
- Trump has mostly delivered on other pledges, including tax breaks and an immigration crackdown
Two years ago, as he barnstormed the state en route to returning to the White House, Donald Trump promised a “Michigan miracle” of increased prosperity and an industrial renaissance.
“We’ll cut your taxes, end inflation, slash your prices, raise your wages, and bring thousands of factories back to America and right here to Michigan,” Trump told supporters in Novi in October 2024.
Trump has 27 months to make good on his pledge that “by the end of my term, the entire world will be talking about the Michigan miracle and the stunning rebirth of Detroit.”
How’s that going? At best, it’s a work in progress — and in some ways the economy is worse in Michigan today than before Trump took office.
Bridge Michigan is periodically updating progress on 100 promises Trump made to Michigan during his 24 campaign visits to Michigan in 2024. We’re doing so again a month before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that polls indicate are a referendum on his presidency.
Trump was mentioned more than any other single issue in Bridge Listens, our unscientific survey of reader election-year concerns. In all, 35% of nearly 3,600 respondents mentioned him by name, and the overwhelming majority were negative.
Beyond the economy, Trump has made good on a number of promises to Michigan, from an immigration crackdown to ending EV subsidies.
Here’s a look at where the pledges stand now:
End inflation, lower interest, boost economy
Promises: “We will end the inflation nightmare,” Trump said at a July 20, 2024, rally in Grand Rapids.
“We will quickly defeat it. We have to bring down prices. I will cut taxes, slash regulations, curb wasteful spending, and unleash energy production. It’ll all happen very quickly,” Trump said later that October in Detroit.
“This will rapidly drive prices down, lower interest rates, and put more money into the pockets of American consumers.”
What’s happening now: Polls indicate the economy and prices are a top issue for Michiganders and voters nationwide.
Many costs are up or stable:
- Most food prices grew in August from a year earlier, notably ground beef (7.2%) and coffee (6%).
- Inflation reached 3.4% in August, up from 3.0% when Trump took office in January 2025.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this month to 4% because of inflation. Mortgage rates remain about 7%.
In Michigan, since the start of Trump’s second term:
- Unemployment is 5%, down from 5.2%. Fewer people are working: The labor participation rate has fallen to 58.8% from 62%, while Michigan’s workforce declined in August as the US average climbed by 0.4%.
- Average wages are up 3.6% to $34.43 an hour. Nationally, the increase is 5.3%.
The persistent economic bright spot is the stock market and 401(k) savings plans.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 22% since Trump took office. That’s roughly $15 trillion. According to a Reuters analysis, upper-income residents are most likely to benefit from the increase, while short-term finances of the bottom half of households are largely unchanged.
Michigan manufacturing
Promises: Trump campaigned on his “Build America Plan,” which leaned on tariffs charged on imported goods to drive more manufacturing to the US.
“I’m going to save the auto industry,” Trump said in Detroit on June 14, 2024.
By August, the White House celebrated many manufacturing shifts to the US, saying “the United States is seeing an economic revival” across the sector.
What’s happening now: Manufacturing has expanded in the US for eight consecutive months, according to the National Association for Manufacturers. Leading sectors include advanced technology and defense.
Michigan gained 5,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office for a second term in January 2025, up 0.8% to 583,300. Nationally, manufacturing jobs fell 0.27%, or about 35,000 jobs.
General Motors announced plans to move production of some large trucks to the US, including to an under-utilized EV truck factory in Oakland County. Other auto manufacturers, like Toyota, also have made plans to make more vehicles in the US.
Trump is steering defense contracting to autoworkers through the Defense Production Act, with GM recently winning a $700 million Pentagon contract.
And this week, Trump lowered fuel economy standards, which is expected to allow auto makers to increase profits by selling more trucks.
Tariffs
Promises: Trump promised to increase Michigan competitiveness with aggressive tariffs that he told the Detroit Economic Club would “drive prices down, lower interest rates and put more money into the pockets of American consumers.”
He also said setting new taxes on imported goods would further boost manufacturing in Michigan.
“Build it right here in Detroit, you don’t have any tariffs,” Trump said in the city on Oct. 10, 2024.
What’s happening now: The tariff rollout was chaotic early in 2025, prompting uncertainty among many business leaders. But rates stabilized after negotiations, and by August, the White House celebrated many manufacturing shifts to the US, saying “the United States is seeing an economic revival” across the sector.
Tariff revenue was $233 billion from January through late September. Experts say tariff refunds ordered by the US Supreme Court are cutting into that, with about $140 billion to be counted as federal revenue. The import tax was about $77 billion in 2024 before Trump was reelected.
Experts say Michigan consumers are paying $26 billion more for goods since January 2025 as a result of the tariffs.
The Michigan Smart Trade Alliance estimates that is about $6,419 per household.
End foreign wars
Promises: Trump promised Michigan voters repeatedly he would end foreign conflicts including the Russian-Ukraine war and “stop the chaos in the Middle East.”
“We will restore peace through strength,” Trump said in February 2024 in Waterford.
What’s happening now: The Ukraine-Russia war is ongoing. Trump halted direct aid to Ukraine, but his administration has approved arms sales. This month he also signed a sanctions bill to put economic pressure on Russia.
Rather than bring peace to the Middle East, the conflict has escalated. In February, the US launched air strikes against Iran, a move backed by Israel. Retaliatory strikes at Israel came immediately.
By September, the US spent $37.5 billion on the attacks and thousands of additional American troops were in the Middle East. Fighting has spread, with US embassies going on higher alert this week and other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, have drawn Iranian strikes.
Energy prices
Promises: Trump repeatedly told Michigan that his goal was to cut energy costs in half by January 2026, highlighting a carbon-fuel-first policy of “drill, baby, drill” and end to electric vehicle subsidies.
“That’s going to be the beginning, and we’re going to bring (down) your cost of groceries, foods, everything,” he said in Warren on Nov. 1.
What’s happening now: The average price per gallon last week in Michigan was $4.91 and diesel was at a record high of $6.81 per gallon.
That compares to $2.70 per gallon in January and about $3 per gallon when Trump took office. At that time, diesel cost about $3.63 per gallon. Home heating oil, likewise, is up 100% to $4.72 a gallon from one year ago.
The biggest cause of the spike is the US attacks on Iran. Even though the US hit a record for crude oil production, it is not enough to offset disruptions caused by events overseas.
Last fall, Trump delivered on a promise to end EV subsidies, a move that is expected to save taxpayers up to $300 billion by 2035. His administration is backing nuclear energy expansion —including a $57 million loan to restart the Palisades plant in west Michigan.
Despite Trump’s fossil-fuel first agenda, the share of electricity produced by renewable sources has grown 10% this year and now comprises one-third of the market, despite Trump’s rollback of support and subsidies
Taxes
Promises: Trump promised to “pass major tax cuts for workers, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits for our seniors,” when he spoke in Detroit in 2024.
What’s happening now: Trump’s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, increased overall after-tax incomes by 5.4% but its impact varies significantly, according to an analysis from the nonprofit Tax Foundation.
The law has little impact to those making $50,000 or less, while it saves about $3,000 for a married couple with two kids — and $20,000 to those making $500,000 or more.
The act cut Medicaid spending by $1 trillion, which could remove 171,000 or more people from the insurance in Michigan, according to some estimates.
The act also created a $25,000 deduction on tips and overtime earnings that lasts through 2028.
Border control, illegal immigration
Promises: Trump told Michiganders that he would “seal the border” on the first day of his second term.
“On day one, I will launch the largest deportation program of criminals in American history,” he said in Grand Rapids just ahead of the election. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered.”
What’s happening now: The Trump administration says illegal border crossings are at historic low levels.
In August, 10,939 people were apprehended at borders. Of them, about 8,800 involved southwest US borders. That is 94% lower than the monthly average during the Biden administration — and a sign, Trump says, that his administration secured the border.
The number of ICE detentions set a record in June, then again in July, CBS reported.
Meanwhile, drug seizures this year are 73% higher than the same period in 2024. That includes 773 pounds of fentanyl seized in 2026. Trump says that’s a sign that fewer drugs are entering the nation — and data shows a 50% reduction in fentanyl deaths from mid-2023 through August 2025.
Crime
Promises: Trump campaigned on public safety and fighting street crime, standing with members of law enforcement in Howell as he promised to hire more officers.
“We’re going to stop the crime,” Trump said in June 2024 in Detroit. “We have to let people feel free and be able to walk outside and not even think about being mugged or hit or shot or anything.”
What’s happening now: FBI data showed a decrease from 2014 to 2024 in both violent and property crimes that it tracks. That so-called street crime decline continued during Trump’s first year in office, with the homicide rate the lowest since the mid-1950s.
White collar crime prosecution, meanwhile, started to slow at the end of the Biden administration and continued to slow in early 2025. However, they’re up 23% over five years. The most convictions were from defrauding a federal program, bank fraud and internet fraud.
Trump’s administration has hired border patrol and immigration agents. He also deployed the National Guard to US cities, saying crime was out of control, a move denied by the courts in some areas, including Portland and Chicago.
Vice President JD Vance in fall 2025 offered to send troops to Detroit in response to its homicide rate — which is declining, but higher than much larger cities. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer called it “unnecessary.”
Four cities will share $300 million in “model cities” safety grants to be announced this year.
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