In fight for Congress, Michigan ‘microcosm’ emerges as a top race to watch

• Democrats, Republicans compete for Congress in Saginaw, Bay City, Midland and Flint seat that one expert calls a “microcosm” of the country.
• U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee’s surprise retirement quickly made the 8th Congressional District a national target for both parties.
• Three Republicans and three Democrats will be on the ballot in Aug. 6 primary, with winners heading to the general election.

By one measure, Michigan’s 8th congressional district is at the center of the battle for Congress. 

Nationwide, there are 217 congressional districts that lean more Republican than the stretch of Michigan’s eastern Lower Peninsula, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index. And there are 217 districts that lean more Democratic. 

So it caused political shockwaves last fall when Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Flint, who had represented the area for the last 12 years, announced his planned retirement, a decision he said was spurred by a recent battle with cancer.

The district immediately became a top target for national organizations expected to spend significant sums as Democrats and Republicans fight for control of the U.S. House, where the GOP currently holds a seven-seat advantage.

Candidates scrambled to enter the race — and many more considered it before withdrawing their names, leaving a field that includes Democrats like state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and State Board of Education President Pam Pugh, and a trio of Republicans, including 2022 nominee Paul Junge. 

As the state’s only open congressional seat with two multi-candidate primaries, the 8th Congressional District is set to be one of Michigan’s most competitive on Aug. 6.  And heading into the general election, it will likely be even more competitive: Cook rates it a “toss-up” with a 1-point advantage to Republicans.

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“An enormous amount of money is going to be spent on the 8th and 7th congressional districts, and they could shape who is going to be controlling the U.S. House of Representatives,” pollster and Republican political consultant Steve Mitchell told Bridge Michigan, also referencing an open Lansing-area seat. 

“My sense is that even had Kildee run, it would be a very close race because of the nature of the district.”

It’s ‘really changed’

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have both already visited the 8th Congressional District this year, signaling its national importance.

Trump held a rally in Saginaw County’s Freeland, while Biden made a campaign stop at a private home in Saginaw, drawing some criticism for not meeting with Black community leaders.

The district was once anchored by Flint, but redistricting after the 2020 census and a decline in Flint’s population shifted weight to the tri-cities area comprising Midland, Bay City and Saginaw to the north.

It’s now whiter, poorer and less college-educated than Michigan writ large, demographics that tend to lean in former President Donald Trump’s favor. The median household income, roughly $58,000, is more than $15,000 below the nationwide figure of nearly $75,000.

The tri-cities region, in particular, has seen dramatic political shifts.

Once-moderate GOP bastions like Midland have been eclipsed by Trump’s populistic “Make America Great Again” strain of conservatism. And Saginaw County is increasingly seen as a bellwether given Biden’s 303-vote win there in 2020, a margin of just 0.3%.

“It's really changed everything,” Mitchell said of the shifting dynamics. ”We've got this change that has occurred nationally, demographically and philosophically coming right to this microcosm.”

The city of Midland — home to Dow Chemical Company’s global headquarters — has tilted toward Democrats since Trump narrowly won there in 2016. Biden won the city by 489 votes in 2020.

Trump moved “some people who are more centrist to try to get a more reasonable candidate, a reasonable policy, a reasonable take at how we look at politics,” said Midland County Democratic Party chair Jennifer Austin. “So that's definitely helped in a lot of ways.”

But that’s not the case in the rest of the county. Trump still won Midland County in 2020, and Junge beat Kildee there in the last election.

“It's still going to be a close race,” Austin acknowledged. “We still have to work hard for it. I'm not taking anything for granted, but I just have so much confidence in the people running for that seat that I'm just not super worried about it.”

The Democratic primary

McDonald Rivet, Pugh and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier are all competing for the opportunity to hold the district for Democrats.

McDonald Rivet has the most substantial backing in the race, both in dollars and major endorsements. She has the backing of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, U.S. Reps. Debbie Dingell, Haley Stevens and Kildee – who last week picked her as his successor – and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In a statement, Kildee called the primary “spirited” but said he thinks McDonald Rivet is “the best candidate to represent mid-Michigan” given her “pragmatic leadership and bipartisan approach.”

McDonald Rivet is running on accomplishments in the Michigan Legislature, which she joined in 2023 as Democrats regained full control of state government for the first time in 40 years, giving her ample material to draw from.

McDonald Rivet sponsored a new law to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for lower-income workers, which she called “the largest tax cut for working families in Michigan's history.” She’s also touted work on pro-union and housing legislation. 

“I’m the only person running in this primary and in the general that has a concrete list of accomplishments that have helped working families in this district in a practical way,” McDonald Rivet told Bridge. 

Collier, a West Point graduate and former Army Ranger, was Flint’s youngest-ever mayor, serving a single term from 1987 through 1991. He later worked in the administration of former President Barack Obama as a senior adviser in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

He has run a campaign emphasizing the need for economic revitalization around Flint and an expansion of American manufacturing.

Both Collier and McDonald Rivet have solicited help from outside groups on their respective websites, offering sample footage and specifying what super PACs and other groups should say in ads supporting them.

McDonald Rivet has had the best success with fundraising so far, raising a little more than $825,000 through the end of March, while Collier had raised about $304,000 and Pugh had raised about $231,000, according to federal records.

Pugh, the State Board of Education president, last year announced a campaign for U.S. Senate but later pivoted to a House run after Kildee’s retirement announcement. 

A Saginaw resident, Pugh was appointed Flint’s chief health advisor during the response to the city’s water crisis. She’s served on the state education board for nearly a decade and has positioned herself to the left of McDonald Rivet.

Her priorities include popular progressive issues such as action on climate change and expanding healthcare coverage, noting, “We need a system that provides coverage for all individuals, full stop.”

At a recent press conference, Pugh emphasized the high poverty levels in Flint and Saginaw and suggested she would be a champion for the working class.

“The haves and the have-nots, there's a gulf that continues to grow. And even worse than that, there are those who are standing in that gap, protecting the status quo,” Pugh said, in reference to her political opponents.

Pugh has consistently called for a cease-fire in the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas, saying that, as an advocate for children, the death of innocent civilians "deeply pains" her.

A new multi-racial coalition that includes Wayne County Executive Warren Evans and former gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed last week announced support for Pugh, who is the only African American candidate in the race.

She's also backed by the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus and the American Arab & Muslim Political Action Committee, among others. 

The Republican Primary

Junge, businesswoman Mary Draves and trucking company owner Anthony Hudson are competing in the GOP primary for the chance to try and flip the House seat in the general election. 

The candidates have all emphasized inflation and protecting the district’s agriculture industry as top issues, a nod to the rural communities that will be key in the primary election.

For Junge, it will be his third attempt at election to the U.S. House. He lost to Kildee in 2022 and ran against Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, in 2020. Junge has worked as a prosecutor, congressional staffer, news anchor and as an external affairs officer with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

Aside from the economy, immigration is a top issue. His campaign says Junge will “fight to secure the border, build the wall, stop the deadly flow of illegal drugs like fentanyl … and crack down on the tragedy of human trafficking.”

Junge is also largely self-funded, having contributed $1,000,000 to this run through the end of March, raising about $1.1 million in total.

Draves, a former Dow Chemical Company executive and a lifelong Midland resident, is running a campaign similarly focusing on the economy and immigration and said  

In a press release, her campaign said she has raised a little more than $500,000.

That shows the “power of grassroots backing and a shared vision for practical and effective leadership," said Draves campaign manager Eric Harpootian.

After launching her campaign in April, Draves has been receiving outside help from a super PAC called the Winning For Women Action Fund, which has spent close to $400,000 running ads in the area, according to Federal Communications Commission filings.

Hudson, the trucking company owner and an army veteran, has raised a little less than $30,000 for his campaign.

He’s running on border security and economic issues, such as inflation. 

He’s also vowed to  try and “close the borders” and block recent actions by Democrats in Lansing, including implementation of a “red flag” gun confiscation law and money appropriated for electric school buses.

Trading jabs

Though there has been little public polling yet conducted in the race, McDonald Rivet and Junge have appeared as front-runners and have been the subject of numerous attacks from their rivals.

Draves’ campaign has called Junge a “perennial carpetbagger” and her campaign manager, Eric Harptoonian, accused Junge of relying on a trust fund to bankroll his campaign.

Junge was born in Ann Arbor but went to college in California and has worked jobs across the country, including in Missouri. But spokesperson Jayden Rittenbury asserted Junge has lived in the district for years. 

Rittenbury shot back at Draves, suggesting "she is being rejected" by Republican voters because she previously touted the importance of workplace diversity, equity and inclusion programs, among other things. 

He noted Draves has also previously contributed a total of $750 to Democrats on at least two occasions, including to a political action committee with ties to McDonald Rivet. She's attributed those contributions to her role with Dow and said she's donated $63,000 to Republicans over the past 18 years.

Nikki Snyder, a former GOP candidate who failed to make the ballot, has endorsed Draves and attacked Junge, saying she’s “tired of rich Republican men running failed campaigns and blocking and tackling for the success of extremely liberal female Democrats.”

In the Democratic primary, Collier has criticized McDonald Rivet for accepting a $1,000 campaign contribution from prominent GOP donor, J.C. Huizenga to her state Senate campaign.

McDonald Rivet, however, appears so confident she’ll win the Democratic primary, she has taken to naming Junge as her main rival. 

“He has spent millions of dollars trying to buy a U.S. House seat in Michigan, she said at a campaign event in Flint. “He lost in 2020. He lost in 2022, and with your help, he's going to lose again.”