Michigan is old and getting older. Experts warn of looming consequences

Michigan’s population is getting older, and there’s not enough young people coming into the workforce to replace them
That could have major implications across multiple topics, from the amount of federal funding Michigan receives to school count data
As of 2024, one-third of Michigan’s population was over the age of 55. Michigan is the 13th oldest state by age in the nation.

LANSING — An aging population, rising retirement rates and a stagnating labor market could have serious consequences for the state and its residents if left unaddressed, state demographers said Friday.

Data presented to state lawmakers painted a stark picture of Michigan’s labor market, which officials say has seen little upward momentum since bouncing back from the COVID-19 pandemic.

That’s not just troubling news for state officials looking at a loss of tax revenues for future budgets, but also for schools that could continue to lose students and employers that may struggle to find workers.

“A growing share of our population is no longer working, not necessarily because of weak labor demand, but because they’ve aged into that retirement population,” said Wayne Rourke, labor market information director at the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics.

While there have been job gains, mostly in the health care and government sectors, it hasn’t been enough to offset declines in areas like manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities. Michigan lost about 8,000 jobs over the past year.

Related:

As of 2024, one-third of Michigan’s population was over the age of 55. And as residents continue to age, Rourke cautioned it would put “much more pressure” on elder care services and the state’s health care industry.

With Michigan’s current median age hovering around 40 years old, it already ranks as the 13th oldest state by age in the nation.

“Population aging is pronounced in Michigan, even relative to other states, and will continue impacting the labor force and potential tax revenues for the state,” said State Demographer Jaclyn Butler, who also serves as Michigan’s liaison to the US Census Bureau.

Baby boomer retirements

Since March 2025, Michigan’s labor force has lost 93,000 workers, Rourke said, calling it “one of the steepest declines we’ve seen outside of a major event.”

One major reason: Baby boomers are retiring in waves, Rourke said, noting “participation in the labor force naturally starts to fall” when people turn 55.

As of last year, Michigan also had just over 1.8 million retirees — up more than half a million from 25 years ago, he added.

Moving forward, Michigan’s share of working-age adults is projected to either remain flat, or decrease, through 2050 as the population ages.

That will have an impact on tax revenues, Butler warned, as retirees pay fewer income taxes and have the opportunity to use certain age-specific tax deductions and reductions, further drawing from state revenues.

Retirees now comprise 22% of the state’s 16-and-older population, and Michigan is one of 15 states where baby boomers are the largest living generation, according to Butler.

Michigan added about 28,000 residents last year, according to recent census data, putting the state’s population at 10.1 million. Detroit led the state with the addition of 5,000 residents for the year ending July 1, 2025.

For the first time in 35 years, Michigan recorded positive domestic migration. But Butler said that was largely the result of fewer people leaving Michigan, as opposed to relocating here. And international migration, which had helped buoy the state’s population in prior years, leveled off in 2025.

“Potential population growth in Michigan would depend on consistent and higher levels of net migration to offset steepening natural decrease, particularly as baby boomers age,” Butler said.

Aside from last year, Michigan has experienced net out-migration in most years since the 1970s, and the state’s population trajectory has effectively been flat across the last two decades. Butler explicitly attributed this to decreasing births, increasing deaths and uneven migration patterns.

Bad news for schools

Birth rates have long been declining in Michigan, and that means fewer school-age children going to public schools.

In 2024, there were about 99,000 births in Michigan, down from an average of 137,081 annually from 1980 to 2006 and the “peak baby boom” of 208,000 in 1957, according to Butler.

“The baby boom really boomed in Michigan,” she said.

The state’s 5- to 17-year-old population is also projected to decline, from the roughly 1.6 million children currently in Michigan to just under 1.3 million by 2050, a drop of about 280,000 kids.

About 80% of Michigan school districts have already reported experiencing enrollment reductions since 2009, said Butler, citing a 2024 report from Crain’s Detroit Business.

“We have not had the same replenishment at the bottom or younger part of the age distribution that other states have had, either through higher total fertility rates … or young adult migration gains,” she said.

Fewer kids in classrooms means fewer dollars to districts, who submit student counts twice a year to the state. Those counts influence a large bulk of a district’s annual funding.

During the 2025-2026 school year, all public schools generally received $10,050 per student, meaning a district that has 10 fewer students would get nearly $100,500 less from the state.

Lower birth rates also have implications for Michigan college enrollments, which remain lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Roughly 53% of the class of 2024 enrolled in college, down from 62.2% in 2019 and 54.6% in 2020, according to the most recent estimates from state officials. Several smaller colleges have closed in recent years, most recently Siena Heights, where officials noted the population trends.

“You cannot recruit students who were never born,” Siena Heights President Cheri Betz told Bridge Michigan.

Congressional representation, federal funding

Michigan’s aging population — and the potential for sluggish growth or future population losses — “matters because it directly impacts the census count that distributes billions of federal and state dollars on an annual basis,” Butler said.

The 2030 Census count will reportedly determine how more than $1.5 trillion in federal funding is divided between states for things like transportation, affordable housing and water infrastructure.

Butler noted Michigan could also continue to lose seats in the US House, which is reapportioned every 10 years based on Census counts.

That would be nothing new for Michigan. The state has lost at least one US House seat after every decennial census since 1970, when it peaked at 19 seats.

Most recently, the state dropped from 14 seats to the current 13 as a result of the 2020 US Census. Redistricting forced incumbent Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens and Andy Levin to face off in a primary, which Stevens won.

Michigan’s population was up about 2% in the 2020 Census — topping 10 million residents for the first time — but it grew slower than many peers and dropped to the 10th largest state, down from 8th in 2010.

What’s next

The importance of the decennial population counts means Michigan should start preparing for the 2030 Census soon, Butler told lawmakers.

In particular, Butler said she is meeting with local governments to discuss the importance of the “Local Update of Census Addresses” operation, or LUCA.

The Census Bureau uses local lists to identify where people live and where they should follow up in the event residents do not respond to requests for information, Butler said.

“My goal is for our state to hit the ground running when LUCA operations start next year, so that we can … position our state for a strong 2030 census,” she said.

Michigan’s population struggles are not new.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer created a population growth council in 2023 tasked with recommending ways the state could “attract talent and provide expanding opportunities for families.”

Among other things, the council recommended providing free college tuition and more equitable school and transportation funding systems.

The governor also created a Michigan Growth Office, but lawmakers last year denied the governor’s request for $10 million to fund it.

Asked about Michigan’s aging population and stagnating labor rates on Friday, State Treasurer Rachael Eubanks seemed unfazed.

“I don’t see those statistics necessarily align with the decisions that I’ve made,” Eubanks said, adding that there are “so many wonderful attributes to the state” which led her personally to decide to raise a family in Michigan.

“I hope that the amenities that we provide and the other attributes of the state are adequate to be converse to that viewpoint.”

State Budget Director Jen Flood also pointed to past budget investments in things like free pre-K access for families, free breakfast and lunch at Michigan schools for children and free community college as “some of the work we’ve done over the past seven years (to make) Michigan a welcoming state and a great state to raise a family.”

“If you’re a young family looking for a place to raise your kids, I can’t think of a better place than Michigan,” she said.