Trump PAC helps drive Michigan Senate race toward record spending

Michigan’s US Senate race between Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed on pace to be the most expensive election in state history
There’s been more than $205 million in disclosed spending in the race so far, without undisclosed dark money likely raising the total
Groups have already reserved another $65 million in ads through Election Day, according to AdImpact tracking firm

Michigan’s US Senate race remains on track to be the most expensive in state history after recent super PAC spending tied to Republicans and President Donald Trump.

Disclosed spending on the closely watched race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has surpassed $205 million, according to federal records reviewed by Bridge Michigan.

The true total is almost certainly much higher because campaigns have not reported fundraising since July 15 and millions have likely been spent by so-called “dark money” nonprofits that do not have to disclose their spending.

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It places the full cost of the election on pace to exceed the 2024 race between Rogers and now-US Sen. Elissa Slotkin, which saw more than $217 million in disclosed spending. In 2020, the nonprofit Michigan Campaign Finance Network tracked a total of $205 million in disclosed and undisclosed spending in that US Senate race.

Among groups disclosing their spending this cycle, Rogers has a decided advantage. GOP groups have spent $59.3 million, compared to $23 million by backers of El-Sayed, according to FEC records.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC working to maintain the GOP’s majority, has been the largest spender so far in the general election, reporting nearly $22 million to support Rogers with advertising.
The No Going Back super PAC, an offshoot of Trump’s MAGA Inc., has spent more than $13 million to back Rogers, who Trump has endorsed. The PAC has spent more money in Michigan than any other state save Ohio, including an additional $4.4 million on US House races here.
Elon Musk’s America PAC has been a relatively small player in the race, throwing in about $3.9 million to back Rogers, mostly through online ads and political mail.

Advertising data suggests a more competitive landscape. As of Thursday, Democratic groups had spent $43.8 million on the race, compared to the $59 million by Republicans, according to AdImpact, a tracking firm whose totals also include ads by dark money groups that don’t report spending or donors.

Groups have already reserved another $65 million in ads through Election Day for the Michigan race. Roughly two-thirds of that — $42 million — is to benefit Rogers, according to AdImpact. Reservations can fluctuate as advertisers buy or cancel contracts, however.

The GOP ad spending advantage mirrors an advantage it also holds in other Senate battleground states such as Ohio, Maine and Texas.

While $103 million in general election ad spending is a historically large sum for a Michigan election, especially compared to a decade ago, it’s well behind the spending in other battleground states. In Ohio, there’s been a whopping $247 million in ad spending since that state’s primary election on May 5.

Polling has shown a close race in Michigan. El-Sayed leads Rogers by an average of about 3.5 percentage points, and he’s led nearly every poll, according to an aggregation by RealClearPolitics. The Cook Political Report has rated the race a toss-up.

Trump began a multi-state campaign tour this week. Speaking at an Oklahoma rally, the president urged Republicans to vote in the midterm, acknowledging the GOP is “worried about Michigan” and other states.

The Michigan race to replace retiring Democratic US Sen. Gary Peters is considered one of the nation’s most important as both parties vie for control of Congress.

Much of the total cost has come from the extraordinarily expensive Democratic primary, which saw about $75 million in disclosed spending by outside groups. That was only recently eclipsed by the general election, in which another $82 million in independent expenditures, bringing the total in outside spending for the race to $157 million.

United Democracy Project, a super PAC controlled by the America Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, hasn’t disclosed spending any money in the general election but remains the race’s largest overall spender. It poured in nearly $31 million to support Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary.

Though ballots are in the hands of many Michigan voters, federal candidates like Rogers and El-Sayed won’t have to disclose their own post-primary donors or spending for another three weeks. Their next report is due Oct. 22.