10 races to watch: Democrats, Republicans battle for Michigan Legislature

LANSING — Control of the Michigan Legislature is on the line in the Nov. 3 election as both major political parties fight to win majorities.

Democrats currently hold a 20-18 seat advantage in the state Senate, while Republicans have a 58-52 edge in the House.

Every one of those seats is on the ballot, but experts say only a fraction are truly competitive and could decide what type of Legislature Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson or Republican rival John James will work with next year.

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House and Senate officials have already outlined policy priorities they would try to implement if their respective parties win full control of state government, ranging from health care affordability to property tax cuts.

Of the 110 incumbent lawmakers in the state House, nine Republicans and 14 Democrats are either retiring or running for other offices. In the 38-member Senate, eight Democrats and 10 Republicans are term-limited.

There are pickup opportunities for each party — though Democrats have a distinct advantage if polling is accurate, said Matt Grossmann, director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research.

Here are some of the top races to watch:

Battle for the Michigan Senate

Four years ago, Democrats narrowly won control of the upper chamber to secure full control of state government for the first time in four decades, a power they lost two years later due to House elections.

Senate Republicans “got a little over our skis and were a little optimistic” about some of the races they lost in 2022, said state Sen. Roger Hauck of Mount Pleasant, the party’s presumptive caucus leader next term.

This time around, in a midterm election where the party in control of the White House typically underperforms, Republicans are “concentrating” on winning the 20 seats necessary to flip the chamber, Hauck told Bridge Michigan.

In separate interviews, Hauck and presumptive Democratic Senate Leader Darrin Camilleri of Trenton identified the same five seats they see as crucial to winning a majority. They are:

Senate District 9: Incumbent state Sen. Michael Webber, R-Rochester Hills, faces Democrat Dr. Theresa Brooks. Webber won the seat by just 795 out of 115,111 votes in 2022. The district includes parts of Oakland and Macomb counties.
Senate District 12: Incumbent state Sen. Kevin Hertel, D-Saint Clair Shores, is up against Republican John Goldwater. Hertel won the seat by just 404 out of 125,140 votes in 2022. The district includes parts of Wayne, Macomb and St. Clair counties.
Senate District 13: This is an open seat after incumbent state Sen. Rosemary Bayer, D-West Bloomfield, chose not to run for reelection. Former Republican state Rep. Ryan Berman will take on Democrat Sean Carlson. Bayer won by 14 percentage points in 2022, but the GOP believes Berman can make it more competitive. The district includes parts of Wayne and Oakland counties.
Senate District 30: Incumbent state Sen. Mark Huizenga, R-Walker, has a challenger in state Rep. Carol Glanville, D-Walker. Huizenga won the seat by just 391 out of 129,633 votes in 2022. The district includes parts of Kent and Ottawa counties.
Senate District 32: This is an open seat being vacated by term-limited state Sen. Jon Bumstead, R-North Muskegon. Democrat Rebecca Amidon and Republican Kim Cole are vying to replace him. Bumstead won by about 5 percentage points in 2022, and Democrats believe his departure gives them a good chance to close that gap.

Democrats are optimistic they could grow their current majority because “many of our retiring members are in safer Democratic seats,” said Camilleri, acknowledging that Bayer’s seat will be competitive.

Fight for the Michigan House

With 110 state House seats on the ballot, Republicans and Democrats identified different districts they believe could help them maintain or obtain a majority in the lower chamber.

Republicans are “heavily invested” in ousting Democratic state Rep. Denise Mentzer of Mount Clemens in the 61st House District, House Speaker Matt Hall told Bridge.

Mentzer won reelection in 2024 by just 721 out of 50,177 votes over Republican Robert Wojtowicz, who is challenging her again for the Macomb County seat.

“We didn’t have the budget last time to do what we’re doing this time,” said Hall, R-Richland Township. “I think that’s going to be a close one again, and I’m really hopeful we’ll pull it out this time.”

MIRS News, a Capitol research service, estimates Republicans have already spent around $200,000 on the race, but Democrats have spent even more to protect it, around $663,000.

Hall also identified two open seats that could be competitive:

House District 31: Democratic Rep. Reggie Miller of Van Buren chose not to run again after winning reelection by about 1 percentage point in 2024. Republican Laura Perry and Democrat Shannon Wayne are competing for the southeastern Michigan seat.
House District 54: Incumbent Republican Rep. Donni Steele of Orion Township gave up her Oakland County-based seat to run for state Senate. Steele flipped the seat in 2022 and won reelection by about 5 points in 2024. Democrat Sarah Pounds and Republican Roman Gaskey are running to replace her.

House Democrats, who won a short-lived majority in 2022, are focused on roughly 10 districts they believe are critical to regaining control of the chamber, said House Minority Leader Ranjeev Puri.

Officials embarked on a listening tour earlier this cycle to “understand why the Democratic brand was failing and what we needed to do,” Puri said. Their conclusion: “Focus on kitchen table issues,” he said.

That focus, combined with President Donald Trump’s low approval rating, could help Democrats oust incumbents in some districts Republicans have traditionally carried, Puri said. He highlighted:

House District 46: Republicans are spending heavily to help state Rep. Kathy Schmaltz of Jackson survive a challenge from Democrat Jan Maino. Schmaltz won reelection by about four percentage points in 2024 in the district, which includes parts of Jackson and Washtenaw counties.
House District 86: Republican state Rep. Nancy DeBoer of Holland won reelection by 12 percentage points in 2024, but Democrats are spending heavily for challenger Joseph McClusky. The district includes parts of Ottawa and Allegan counties.

“We have a pretty wide path,” Puri said of Democrats. “I don’t think that there’s any one seat in which our entire majority hinges on, which has made this cycle really unique for us.”