These Michigan races could help decide control of Congress

The US House is up for grabs in November, and Democrats are optimistic about their chances nationally
In Michigan, three US House races have been labeled as ‘toss ups’ that could go either way on Nov. 3
See who’s running, and where to watch on election night to determine which whether the GOP retains congressional control

LANSING — A national battle for control of the US House is playing out in Michigan, where Democrats are attempting to flip at least three Republican seats and put a check on President Donald Trump during the final two years of his term.

Key races include the 4th Congressional District in Southwest Michigan, where incumbent GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga faces a challenge from Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann, and the 10th District, where Republican Michael Bouchard is competing with Democrat Christina Hines for a seat John James is leaving to run for governor.

The GOP is spending heavily to defend those seats, but no Michigan race is more expensive than mid-Michigan’s 7th District, where first-term Republican US Rep. Tom Barrett is attempting to hold off progressive Democratic community organizer Will Lawrence.

The race is on track to be one of the most expensive in the midterm cycle, with ad spending already nearing $60 million.

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Barrett’s seat is “one of those much-needed pickups for the Democrats if they are going to retake the House,” said Marty Jordan, an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University. “As the Michigan 7th goes, it will probably be how the US House goes.”

Nationally, Republicans control of the US House by four seats. In Michigan, GOP lawmakers represent 7 of the state’s 13 Congressional Districts.

Already one Michigan incumbent is out: US Rep. Shri Thanedar lost in the Democratic primary to state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who is a heavy favorite to win election in the Detroit-based 13th Congressional District.

With Trump’s approval ratings underwater, Michigan Democrats are optimistic they can win their top target seats in the Nov. 3 general election — and some are setting their sights even higher, to the 1st Congressional District in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula.

There, Republican US Rep. Jack Bergman is again defending his seat against Callie Barr, who he beat by more than 20 percentage points two years ago, making it an extreme longshot for Democrats.

“We’re in a totally different world right now,” Barr told Bridge Michigan about the growing optimism surrounding her campaign. “A lot has happened in the last 18 months” and voters are looking for change, she added, pointing to Trump’s ongoing trade war with Canada and the Iran War.

Democrats last held the seat from 1993 through 2010 under then-US Rep. Bart Stupak. But former US Sen. Debbie Stabenow recently predicted a Barr victory and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added the race to its “2026 Districts in Play” list.

But the Michigan Republican Party, in a statement, said voters “are coming out in full force” for Bergman, and Cook Political Report continues to call it a “solid Republican” seat.

The same can’t be said for Michigan’s 4th, 7th and 10th US House districts, each of which Cook considers to be a true “toss-up.” Learn about them below.

Huizenga on defense in southwest Michigan

Huizenga, R-Zeeland, has served in the US House since 2011 and won the current 4th Congressional District roughly 11 percentage points in both 2022 and 2024. But he’s facing a well-known challenger in McCann, a Kalamazoo Democrat who has represented parts of the district in the state Legislature.

The district spans from Port Sheldon Township in Ottawa County down the shores of Lake Michigan to Lincoln Township in Berrien County. Cook shifted it from “likely Republican” last month.

Bill Huizenga and Sean McCann — Republican US Rep. Bill Huizenga is competing against Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann in Michigan’s 4th Congressional District. (AP/Michigan Senate courtesy photos)

That’s because Democrats in the district have historically put up weaker candidates against Huizenga, said John Clark, a professor of political science at Western Michigan University. But McCann, he said, has an area name ID and fundraising capability that other Democrats lacked.

It remains to be seen how that will translate on the ballot, but Clark said turnout in Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Benton Harbor — which have “the heaviest concentration of Democratic voters in the district” — will be the thing to watch on Election Day.

“I think it’s going to be a question of what happens in the college towns in this area, most notably Kalamazoo,” said Clark, adding that if students “turn out in large numbers, then that’s probably going to help Democrats up and down the ticket.”

Huizenga has served in Congress since 2011 and currently serves on the House Banking Committee. McCann was first elected to the state House in 2010 and later the state Senate in 2014, where he chairs the Senate Energy and Environment Committee.

Notably, Clark said both Huizenga and McCann are running ads on energy affordability and data centers in a way that “if you removed the names of the candidates and just looked at the transcripts … you’d be hard pressed to figure out which campaign was airing them.”

Lawrence challenges Barrett in mid-Michigan

The Barrett-Lawrence race in the 7th Congressional District has become a magnet for spending by outside groups fighting for control of the US House, prompting a barrage of ads touching on everything from health care to data centers to the war in Iran.

Lawrence and groups backing him have spent more than $33 million on ads so far, according to AdImpact data and media reports, while Barrett and outside supporters have spent more than $27 million.

The spending may be surprising, but the focus is not given the district’s swing-seat status, said Jordan, the Michigan State University political science professor.

The race is “sort of seen as a bellwether” for control of the US House, and both parties are desperate to snag it, he said. “It’s possible still for Democrats to retake the U.S. House if they don’t win the 7th, but it would be highly unlikely.”

Rep. Tom Barrett, R-Mich., Republican nominee for U.S. House of Representatives in Michigan’s 7th District, speaks at a campaign event Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in Mason, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Much like in the 4th Congressional District, youth turnout could play a big role in the district, which is home to Michigan State University. Another thing worth watching, according to Jordan: How many Republicans vote in conservative areas like Livingston County without Trump on the ballot.

Barrett is a former state senator who won election to Congress in 2024 by 3.7 percentage points. He narrowly lost his first bid for the seat in 2022, falling to now-US Sen. Elissa Slotkin by a little more than 20,000 votes.

He has sought to differentiate himself from Lawrence by criticizing the Democrat’s past comments on defunding the police and immigration enforcement, as well as his current stance single-payer healthcare, which Barrett panned in their only debate.

Lawrence, meanwhile, has hammered Barrett on high prices under Trump, the Iran War and Barrett’s changing stance on data centers. He has sought to tie Barrett to Trump on a number of issues, including tariffs, which Lawrence characterized as “erratic.”

An open race in metro Detroit

The battleground 10th Congressional District became even more competitive when James decided to run for governor rather than seek reelection. He had won by about six percentage points in 2024 after first winning the seat by less than a point in 2022.

The Republican nominee, Bouchard, is a US Army veteran who political onlookers say may benefit from his name, which she shares with his father, longtime Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard.

“There’s an advantage… when a voter goes into the voting booth and says, ‘Oh, I know that name. I feel comfortable with that name,’ even though it’s maybe not who they’re thinking of,” said Dave Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University.

Michael Bouchard, Christina Hines — Republican Michael Bouchard and Democrat Christina Hines are competing in Michigan’s 10th Congressional District. (AP photos)

Hines, the Democratic nominee, is a prosecuting attorney who’s worked in both Macomb and Oakland counties.

She’s touting plans to lower health care costs and get money out of politics, while Bouchard is campaigning on border security and the continued use of tariffs (except those on Canada) to bolster Michigan’s manufacturing industry. Competing ads label Hines as “soft-on-crime” and Bouchard as a rubber stamp for the Trump administration.

The district — which comprises southern Macomb County, as well as Rochester and Rochester Hills in Oakland County — is considered highly competitive.

Dulio pointed to the cities of Center Line and Eastpointe as areas where Bouchard and Trump’s messaging on manufacturing may be enough to overcome the Democratic lean associated with southern Macomb County.

If Bouchard can “stay within shouting distance” of Hines within those communities “and then try to make it up further north in Rochester, Rochester Hills … then he’s got a chance,” Dulio said.