• Monroe County is one of 11 Michigan counties that backed Obama twice and Trump three times. 
• Now, some residents are frustrated by rising costs and the Iran war
• Democrats see an opening but Republicans say the county is reliably red

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MONROE — Something changed 10 years ago in Monroe County. The community of farmers and factory workers along the Ohio border had for years seesawed between supporting Democrats and Republicans.

But since the presidential election of 2016, Monroe voters have swung hard to Republicans, an election in which the county provided Donald Trump with a 16,000-vote boost in a state he won by just 10,704 votes. In the decade since, the county has become a Republican stronghold.

Cathy Beville experienced that change. She lost customers at her hair salon when she placed a sign for Joe Biden in her Bedford Township yard in 2020. The sign was stolen three days later.

“Even haircuts became political,” Beville said.

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But this election, the 70-year-old senses the political pendulum is shifting. 

“I have a lot of signs in my yard and no one’s taken them,” said Beville, who describes herself as an independent who this year supports Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed for US Senate. “Of course, I do have my motion sensor water sprinkler pointed at them.

“Things have gotten worse, and it’s time not to hide it,” Beville said. “I’m not neutral this year.”

Monroe is one of 11 mostly blue-collar counties in Michigan that helped reshape political maps for Donald Trump by favoring him three times after voting for Obama twice.

But on the eve of an election that will determine the state’s next governor and the successor to Democratic US Sen. Gary Peters, some Monroe County residents are frustrated over affordability and the war in Iran.

“Everyone hated DEI. Maybe it went too far,” said Helen Kourous-Harrigan, a city of Monroe resident.  “Yes, we should have secure borders. OK, the borders are closed. Can your kids afford a home yet? Is gas $2 a gallon yet?”

‘No one has money for extras’

Monroe County’s 156,000 residents are a mix of manufacturing workers, farmers and commuters heading south to Toledo or north to metro Detroit. The county seat is the city of Monroe, the hometown of Gen. George Custer and La-Z-Boy. 

The downtown is dissected by the River Raisin and dotted with empty storefronts. Among the businesses open on a sunny October Saturday was Hidden Intuition Metaphysical Shop.

Co-owner Marsha Stanley isn’t sure how she’ll vote. “Everybody is so far left or right, you don’t know what to do,” she said

Stanley said she can tell residents are hurting economically by the decrease in sales. To those who do trickle in, she recommends a box containing aventurine, a green translucent quartz. Stanley says it is a good luck stone for wealth.

“This is the worst year ever. No one has money for extras like this,” Stanley said. “I’m really happy if I can make the rent and pay the utilities.”

A few miles away at a car show in a church parking lot, Larry Blum relaxed in a lawn chair beside his refurbished Dodge Dart convertible.

The retired Chrysler UAW worker said he thinks tariffs imposed by Trump were “a mistake” that “ran the prices up on everything.”

“With my Social Security and pension I’ll get by,” Blum said. “But I worry about my kids and my grandkids. What are they going to do?”

A few classic cars away, Rick Brown shook his head at the notion that people would change how they vote because “eggs are $5 instead of $3 at Kroger.”

“He (Trump) is doing what he said he’d do and cut programs,” said Brown, 69, who is retired from US Steel in Ecorse. “People vote for these things and they don’t think it’ll affect them. They all just want to be comfortable.”

‘A pretty conservative year’

While the national mood may have swung away from Republicans, Democrats have a steep hill to climb here. In 2024, Monroe County voted for Mike Rogers for a US Senate seat by 24 points, in a race that was won statewide by Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than 1 percentage point. This year, Rogers is running again, against Abdul El-Sayed.

Monroe Democrats can point to the August primary as a reason to hope. In the 2024 primary, in which voters must choose a Democratic or Republican ballot, Republicans cast 60% of the vote. In this August’s primary, Republicans cast only 50%.

Randy Richardville, the Republican Monroe resident who served as Michigan Senate majority leader from 2011–2014, downplayed the primary vote as an indicator of general election turnout.

“I’d be surprised if that 50-50 (Monroe vote) continued,” Richardville said. “The Iran War and how it affects gas prices is a pretty big deal, (but) I’d predict a pretty conservative year here.”

If it’s not, it could be because the currently unpopular president looms over every race, he said.

“It’s Trump versus non-Trump,” Richardville told Bridge. “The anti-Trumpers are raising their voices more than the Trumpers right now.”

That anti-Trump sentiment has raised enthusiasm among Democrats, said Monroe County Democratic Chair Rick Kull in early October, as he rushed to set up more tables for the annual Democratic party dinner. “We normally get about 135 (to the dinner),” Kull said. “This year it’s 210.”

“We’re starting to get more young people involved,” Kull said. “Young people can’t buy a house ‘til they’re in their 40s, and it’s starting to weigh on them.”

Rogers is expected to win Monroe County, but enthusiasm and turnout in such regions could be key to whether Republicans can withstand losses in Democratic cities and suburbs. 

With Trump on the ballot in 2024, nearly 92,000 people voted in Monroe County. In 2018 and 2022, midterms when Trump wasn’t on the ballot, fewer than 70,000 voters cast ballots there.

Affordability wasn’t on the mind of Jackie McGinnis, casting a ballot last weekend on the first early day of in-person voting at Frenchtown Township Hall.  

“I’m very conservative,” McGinnis said. “The issues of the day,” such as the cost to fill her gas tank, are less important to her vote than “abortion, freedom of speech, gun control.”

That was also the view of Joe Bellino, current state senator in a district covering much of Monroe, Lenawee and Hillsdale counties. The Republican’s re-election yard signs were almost as common as Halloween decorations in the city of Monroe on a recent visit.

Bellino argued that the underlying reasons Monroe swung hard to Republicans still exist.

“Sure. I’d like gas to be a buck cheaper, too,” he said. “But all you have to do is ask union members. These guys work (hard) and their neighbor doesn’t work and is getting 50 grand worth of benefits. He’s wondering, ‘What am I working for? Why am I paying him when he can work?’”

Bellino acknowledged that statewide, GOP gubernatorial candidate John James is “probably underwater,” but said he believed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers will beat Abdul El-Sayed.

One reason: El-Sayed is a Muslim, Bellino said, noting that his constituents cite fears of past terror attacks.

“They say, ‘Well, it’s not Catholics doing it, it’s not Jews doing it, it’s another religion doing it.’ And that turns people off,” Bellino said.

Research casts doubt on the narrative — one US government study found that white supremacists or right-wing groups were responsible for 73% of terror events in the US since 9/11 compared to 27% for Islamic extremists.

But the concern is persistent. A survey this week by the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University found that 38% of voters said they would be less likely to support a candidate who was Muslim.

Back at her hair salon, Beville said she looks forward to returning to the day when politics were less mean, and the most heated discussion was over who tints their hair.

“I have very few Republicans in my chair anymore,” Beville said. “They have brought this mess on us, both parties. And it’s frustrating.”

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