- Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary election will decide nominees for US Senate, governor, Congress and more
- Outcomes will hinge on turnout from key voting blocs and show whether millions in outside spending made a difference
- Local races of interest include two competitive US House primaries, a slew of tax hike requests and a data center vote
LANSING — A Senate primary face-off that’s captivated the nation. A wide-open race for governor. Congressional races that set the stage for whether Democrats have a shot at winning majority control.
No wonder all eyes are on Michigan this week as voters prepare to cast their ballots in the Tuesday primary election or await results.
As of Monday morning, more than 1.2 million voters had already cast their ballots, either through mail-in absentee or early in-person voting.
From the top of the ticket on down to important local issues — including one community’s consideration of a referendum on data center projects — here are some dynamics to watch in the Aug. 4 primary election.
Moderates vs. progressives
The slugfest of a US Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens has laid bare party divisions that threaten to complicate otherwise favorable national headwinds for Democrats, who need to hold onto the Michigan seat if they hope to take back majority control from Republicans.
In one corner: Stevens and her backers argue a more moderate candidate will perform better with independents in a general election matchup against Republican Mike Rogers. She’s backed by prominent Michigan Democrats like Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, US Sen. Gary Peters and former US Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
In the other corner: El-Sayed is a progressive favorite attempting to overcome doubts he can win in a purple state like Michigan. Buoyed by recent election victories in solidly blue states, national progressive leaders like US Sen. Bernie Sanders and US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez view El-Sayed as a stepping stone for the movement’s expansion.
In 2016, Sanders shocked the Democratic establishment by winning Michigan’s presidential primary. El-Sayed ran for governor on a similar message in 2018 but lost in the primary. His supporters believe circumstances have changed and that voters are looking for more from the Democratic Party.
Other races, too, will help show whether the progressive message is resonating in the Midwest. Among them: Democrats Will Lawrence and Donavan McKinney are running to the left of other candidates in Lansing-area and Detroit-based congressional seats.
Does money talk?
Money has played a major role in the US Senate race. By the time polls close Tuesday, outside interest groups will have spent an estimated $60 million on the primary alone. Much of that has gone into ads promoting Stevens or attacking El-Sayed in Detroit and other major metro areas.
One of the biggest funders: the United Democracy Project, a political action committee affiliated with the pro-Israel group American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC. El-Sayed, a longtime critic of corporate political influence, has used the funding as a rallying cry, at points likening his campaign to the biblical battle of David and Goliath.
Despite the lopsided spending for Stevens, El-Sayed has led in recent surveys of likely primary voters, suggesting many Democrats may be tuning out or rejecting the advertising onslaught.
Down the ballot and across the aisle, wealthy Republican businessman Perry Johnson is testing what $30-plus million of his personal fortune can buy in his gubernatorial primary against US Rep. John James, who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement and spent considerably less.
Experts have told Bridge consistent, high-volume advertising can help decide close races, but can only do so much to close larger gaps in support.
Who shows up?
El-Sayed’s strong showing in recent polls is at least partially attributable to high support among youth voters, a notoriously fickle voting bloc that could make a big difference this year. Michigan had the largest increase in youth voters nationwide in the 2024 cycle.
Stevens, though, continues to maintain an edge among Black voters and seniors. Both have a better track record of turning out to vote and have historically been key coalitions for winning Democratic primary campaigns.
Primary election turnout doesn’t reliably signal what the vote will look like in November, according to most political science research. But Tuesday’s results will likely still have some useful takeaways heading into the general election season.
Among them: How enthusiastic voters in each major party primary appear to be, and just how close Democrats’ US Senate race and the GOP gubernatorial primary will be.
One thing political science research is pretty clear about: Winning a close and highly divisive primary generally doesn’t bode well for a candidate in the general election. Some Stevens supporters have said they would not vote for El-Sayed in a general election, and many progressives could also be disillusioned by the process if Stevens wins.
Similarly in the gubernatorial primary, if Johnson can make things close with James — or even pull off an upset — it will have come at the cost of steadily undermining James’ case with the GOP grassroots.
Johnson has lobbed attacks at James in recent weeks, raising issues Democrats could repeat in the fall. The hardcore base of Michigan’s Republican Party, while fiercely loyal to Trump, have not hesitated to disregard his endorsement on more than one occasion.
In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Jocelyn Benson holds a strong polling lead over Chris Swanson. If she wins by wide margins, she’ll hope that Democratic turnout points to the potential for a strong November.
Three-way dynamics
Michigan has few competitive US House primaries to watch on Tuesday, but nowhere are things hotter than in the Democratic primary for the 7th Congressional District, which includes all of Clinton, Shiawassee, Ingham, and Livingston counties, as well as portions of Eaton, Genesee, and Oakland counties.
The contest is a three-way matchup between progressive community organizer William Lawrence and two more traditional Democrats: Former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and Bridget Brink, the former US ambassador to Ukraine.
Maasdam has the backing of US Sen. Elissa Slotkin while Brink holds endorsements from former Michigan governors Jennifer Granholm and Jim Blanchard. Lawrence, meanwhile, was endorsed by both El-Sayed and Sanders and appeared with them at a July campaign rally in Lansing.
Much like the US Senate race, the primary tests the direction of the Democratic Party. While Lawrence entered the race as a longshot, he has gained momentum in the polls and could surprise if Maasdam and Brink split the moderate vote.
The winner will move on to face US Rep. Tom Barrett, a Charlotte Republican. Cook Political Report rates the district as a toss-up, making it one of the few nationally that both parties will compete in.
A progressive primary challenge
Progressive Democrats are also putting up a fight in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District, backing state Rep. Donavan McKinney’s bid to unseat incumbent US Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Detroit.
The district is entirely inside Wayne County and, given its political makeup, will likely remain in Democratic hands, meaning the primary is more important than the general.
Thanedar is a wealthy businessman who first won election in 2020, which marked the first time since 1995 that Detroit did not have a Black representative in Congress. He’s never had a bill become law but has backed efforts to improve access to child care, establish a right to in vitro fertilization procedures and expand Social Security.
Thanedar has faced primary challenges before, but McKinney may be his most serious.
The state lawmaker from Detroit is running on a platform of backing greater environmental protections through a Green New Deal, getting corporate spending out of politics and ending military aid and arms to Israel, among other things. McKinney has Sanders’ and El-Sayed’s support, as well as a number of sitting state lawmakers.
Hundreds of tax hike requests
Communities across the state will decide millage and bond requests on Tuesday. All told, voters will decide 286 proposals to increase taxes in cities, townships, villages, counties, school districts and other jurisdictions, according to a tally by Gongwer subscription news service. There are another 588 millage renewals on ballots across the state.
Those local votes come amid growing backlash against property taxes, including a failed attempt to put a property tax elimination proposal on the November ballot.
Many of the tax requests on Tuesday ballots focus on public safety. There are nine local school bonds and 11 sinking millage proposals on the ballot. A Bridge analysis found voters approved a little more than half of all school bond proposals on the August ballot last year.
A data center referendum
Data centers have emerged as a huge issue in 2026 elections, and one will be on the ballot Tuesday. In Washtenaw County’s August Township, voters will decide whether to overturn a new zoning ordinance that local officials changed to allow for a proposed hyperscale data center.
The township board voted last year to rezone 522 acres of agricultural land to facilitate the data center development by Thor Equities of New York. Local citizens circulated petition drives to put a referendum on the August ballot.
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